Middle East Fertiliser Exports Plummet 70% Amid Iran Conflict, Threatening Global Food Security

Global food production and crop yields face significant risks as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has severely disrupted fertiliser supplies from the region. Analysts report a dramatic decline in export volumes, with the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade artery, largely impassable due to attacks on vessels. This has led to a substantial drop in fertiliser shipments, impacting global availability.

Saudi Arabia has attempted to reroute fertiliser shipments overland to its Red Sea ports, but the limited capacity of this alternative has failed to compensate for the loss of trade through the strait. According to Madeleine Overgaard, senior manager of agriculture data at Kpler, export volumes have decreased by approximately 70% to 75%. This reduction has tightened the global supply of essential fertiliser components such as sulphur, nitrogen (urea), and phosphate. In September, shipments fell to 994,000 tonnes, a sharp contrast to the 3.41 million tonnes recorded in the same month last year. Overgaard anticipates that export volumes will remain at these subdued levels through the end of the year, unless the regional security situation improves.

This disruption comes at a time when crude oil supplies from the Middle East are nearing pre-conflict levels. The Gulf region is a crucial supplier of urea and other vital fertiliser ingredients, including nitrogen and sulphur. Key exporters like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar play a significant role in providing these products, which are essential for enhancing crop yields, particularly in major food-producing nations such as India. Kpler data indicates that the Gulf region accounts for 25% to 30% of global sulphur production and up to 50% of global seaborne trade, with nearly all of this traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike major producers like China and the US, which largely consume their domestically recovered sulphur, Gulf suppliers export the majority of theirs. A similar pattern is observed for urea, where the Gulf's 10% to 12% share of global production translates to a substantial 30% to 40% of global seaborne trade, as China and India absorb their own output domestically.

Ms. Overgaard highlighted that