Hezbollah's War Entry Tied to Iran's Survival, Not Just US Conflict, Lebanese Official States

Hezbollah is unlikely to engage in a renewed war unless Iran's leadership perceives an existential threat, according to a senior Lebanese official speaking to The National. The official, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussion, clarified that Hezbollah's involvement would hinge on whether Iran and its ruling system face a threat to their very survival, rather than merely being subjected to renewed American attacks.

"We knew earlier this year, when the war in the region first broke out, that Hezbollah would join the fighting if [late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei were killed," the official stated, adding, "We even informed the Americans about it." The current Middle East conflict, now in its eighth month, commenced in February following air strikes by Israel and the US against Iran. Two days later, on March 2, Hezbollah launched rockets at northern Israel in retaliation for Mr. Khamenei's killing, which precipitated a sustained Israeli bombing campaign across various parts of Iran and the occupation of towns in southern Lebanon.

Israeli troops continue to occupy southern Lebanon and have conducted strikes despite a US-brokered framework agreement with the Lebanese state signed in June. Although Hezbollah was not a signatory to this agreement and has rejected its terms, it has refrained from engaging Israeli troops. While direct military confrontation between the US and Iran has seen periods of de-escalation, concerns are mounting over the potential resumption of hostilities, possibly following the US midterm elections on November 3. Recent weeks have seen exchanges of proposals between Washington and Tehran aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but significant differences persist, and diplomatic efforts have yet to yield a breakthrough. A draft proposal presented by Qatari mediators to Tehran was subsequently deemed unacceptable by an Iranian official.

The Lebanese official reiterated that Hezbollah would likely intervene if Iran faced a significant threat to its survival, irrespective of the group's diminished military capabilities following over three years of war with Israel. Despite substantial losses, Hezbollah is still believed to possess considerable weapons stockpiles.

Regarding the recent US-facilitated security and military discussions between Israeli and Lebanese delegations at the US Central Command headquarters in Tampa, Florida, the official described them as "very good," countering reports in Lebanese media that characterized the talks as unsuccessful. "These actually were the most constructive round of military talks held so far," the official, who has direct knowledge of the meetings, asserted. The Lebanese delegation's objective was to secure an end to Israeli attacks and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, while the framework agreement includes the disarmament of Hezbollah and an expanded role for the Lebanese army.

The issue of Hezbollah's weaponry remains a highly contentious point in Lebanon's internal politics, as well as in negotiations with Israel and international diplomatic discussions. Efforts, both domestic and international, to disarm the militant group have repeatedly faltered, hindered by Hezbollah's military prowess, its backing from Iran, and the limited capacity of the Lebanese army. Hezbollah has rejected calls for disarmament as long as Israeli forces occupy Lebanese territory, though Beirut has committed to the group's disarmament. The official emphasized that the Lebanese state is determined to assert its sovereignty but will do so in a manner that prioritizes Lebanon's national interests.

Concerns have long existed that a direct confrontation between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah could ignite internal conflict. While some Lebanese voices believe the ultimate solution lies with Iran, others advocate for a more assertive approach, even at a cost, and criticize the state for its perceived lack of decisive action.