Errors Plague Trump Administration's 'Non-Citizen' Voter List Ahead of Midterms, Lawsuit Claims

A recent court filing has intensified doubts regarding the accuracy of a list of "likely non-citizen" voters that the administration of United States President Donald Trump provided to California before the midterm elections. On Saturday, the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA), an advocacy group, presented an analysis to the court, prepared by two data scientists from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). This analysis revealed that over 40% of the names on the list were not present on California’s voter rolls. Furthermore, it indicated that thousands of potentially eligible U.S. citizens were mistakenly identified as ineligible to vote.

The list, which the Trump administration sent to California in early October, suggested that as many as 20,930 "likely non-citizens" were registered to vote in the state. This list became the foundation for a lawsuit filed on October 15, which seeks to have any ballots cast by these "likely non-citizens" sequestered and prevented from being counted in the final election results. The lawsuit is proceeding in the critical final days before Tuesday's pivotal midterm elections, which will determine control of the U.S. Congress, along with key state and local offices.

President Trump has voiced concerns that a loss of Republican majorities in Congress could lead to his impeachment. He also has a history of disseminating misinformation about elections, including claims that his defeat in the 2020 presidential election was due to a "rigged" vote. He has frequently criticized California, the nation's most populous state and a long-standing left-wing stronghold. California is electing 52 representatives to the 435-member House of Representatives in Tuesday's elections. President Trump had previously accused California of "cheating" in its June 2 primary elections after several Republican candidates, including Los Angeles mayoral hopeful Spencer Pratt, underperformed.

Under the U.S. Constitution's Elections Clause, states are solely responsible for election administration, although Congress can enact regulations concerning voting. Critics, including California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom, have used this fact to counter Trump's lawsuit. All 50 states already prohibit non-citizen voting in federal elections and implement measures to prevent voter fraud, which is considered extremely rare. Other states that received similar lists of "likely non-citizen" voters have also identified significant inaccuracies in the Trump administration's data. For instance, Nevada found that none of the individuals on its list were non-citizen voters. These errors have raised concerns that eligible citizens might have their votes invalidated if the Trump administration prevails in its California lawsuit. Nevertheless, the Trump administration has threatened state officials with prosecution over the potential for non-citizen voting and has actively pursued its lawsuit in federal court.

On Friday, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco rejected the complaint for a second time, deeming it unconstitutional. The court majority stated in its ruling, "We decline the United States’s invitation to contravene the Elections Clause by undermining the Constitution’s plain text." In Saturday's court filing, the UCLA data scientists from the Voting Rights Project determined that 8,880 names on the list were not found in California’s current voter files, representing 42% of the total. Many other names on the list were confirmed as U.S. citizens or may correspond to U.S. citizens. The filing, co-signed by Xavier Becerra, the Democratic candidate for governor, stated, "This review proves, at least as a preponderance of the evidence, that demands of election officials under criminal and civil threats, endangers the voting rights of plaintiff CHIRLA’s members and clients."