Record Spending Fuels Fierce Midterm Battles: Who's Funding the Fight for Congress?

As early voting commences across the United States, the upcoming 2026 midterm elections are poised to be a significant referendum on Republican President Donald Trump's performance during his second term. Securing a Republican majority in both houses of Congress is crucial for advancing Trump's legislative agenda in his remaining two years. However, control of Congress may hinge on a select few closely contested races for the Senate and House of Representatives.

Candidates, political parties, and external groups are collectively injecting hundreds of millions of dollars into these contests. Major political action committees (PACs), including those backed by billionaire tech CEO Elon Musk, are significantly contributing to this escalating spending war. The question remains: which races are commanding the most expenditure, and who is financing the battle for congressional control?

This year's midterms are on track to shatter previous records for total spending in a political election cycle. As of October 26, the advertising firm AdImpact estimated that $11.21 billion has been spent on advertisements and reservations, a stark contrast to the $3.2 billion spent during the 2024 presidential election season.

Among the most costly individual races are those for pivotal Senate seats designated as toss-ups. Contests in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan are leading the pack in terms of expenditure. The Texas Senate race, in particular, is projected to set new spending records for a US Senate race. Despite a Democratic statewide victory not occurring in Texas since 1994, Senate hopeful James Talarico is aiming to break this long-standing losing streak for his party. Recent polling, including a late October projection by CNN, suggests Talarico holds a narrow lead with 49 percent support, compared to his Republican rival, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has 43 percent.

Interest in the Texas race is exceptionally high, with the Texas secretary of state's office reporting that nearly 4.5 million Texans cast ballots during the first week of early voting alone. Candidate campaigns and outside groups have collectively invested over $534 million in the Texas race this election cycle. Talarico has out-raised his opponent, securing $146 million, while Paxton has raised approximately $22 million. However, Paxton has benefited from substantially more outside spending, with nearly $300 million spent on his behalf, compared to about $80 million for Talarico. Notably, $37 million of Paxton's support comes from MAGA Inc, a super PAC affiliated with President Donald Trump.

Ohio is identified as the second-most expensive Senate race this cycle, with over $435 million spent to date between Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Jon Husted. Polls indicate a tight race in Ohio. A Marist Poll released on October 20 showed Brown leading Husted by four points, though other surveys suggest the candidates are nearly tied. Approximately $248 million has reportedly been spent supporting Husted, compared to $187 million for Brown.

Michigan's Senate contest between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has also witnessed record spending, with an estimated $333 million invested. Similar to Texas, the Democratic candidate, El-Sayed, has led in direct fundraising, raising approximately $54 million, while Rogers has raised about $23 million. However, outside groups have heavily favored Rogers, spending approximately $169 million to support him, versus roughly $94 million for El-Sayed. A late October poll from Michigan State University indicated El-Sayed leading Rogers 48 percent to 45.5 percent, but the race is anticipated to remain close.

Comparing fundraising totals reveals that Republicans have out-raised and out-spent Democrats in this midterm cycle. According to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings, Republicans have raised more funds than Democrats since the beginning of 2025. This financial advantage is evident in the performance of the parties' leading committees. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) spent more than it raised, with nearly $252.3 million raised and about $252.8 million spent. In contrast, the Republican National Committee received approximately $341 million and paid out roughly $303 million as of October 14.

An analysis by Politico, covering January 2025 through October, found that Republicans are increasingly reliant on large donors, such as Elon Musk, as their base of small-dollar donors has diminished. Politico's findings suggest that most donations from everyday individuals have been directed towards President Trump rather than directly to candidates. It remains uncertain whether the Republican Party's fundraising and spending strength will overcome Democratic enthusiasm, as polls project Democrats are likely to regain control of the US House and are favored to win the US Senate.

The top donors this campaign cycle have predominantly supported Republican candidates. On the right, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk contributed $446 million. Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein of Uline donated approximately $150 million. Jeff Yass, founder of Susquehanna International Group, and his wife, Janice, contributed $110 million to right-wing causes. On the left, philanthropist George Soros provided about $102 million to left-leaning candidates. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg pledged $84.2 million to Democrats, with an additional $36 million added recently. Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn, and his wife, Michelle Yee, gave about $41.2 million.

Elon Musk's contribution stands out significantly, as he has donated nearly as much as the top six donors on both sides combined. The majority of this tech billionaire's donations, over $150 million, have been directed to support Senate hopeful Paxton in Texas, aiming to help Republicans maintain their Senate majority. This contribution represents one of the largest political donations in US history. Large-dollar donors like Musk are increasingly channeling funds towards Senate candidates, anticipating Democratic control of the House.

Among Republican-aligned groups, the political nonprofit One Nation has spent $133 million. The American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group, has spent $64.3 million, and the American Prosperity Alliance has spent about $51 million. On the Democratic side, Majority Forward has spent $102 million, followed by House Majority Forward at approximately $93.7 million and the Economic Opportunity Fund at $41.5 million.