Beyond Congress: Why State Governor Races in 2026 Hold the Key to America's Future

While much of the focus leading up to Tuesday's midterm elections has been on the battle for control of the United States Congress, crucial state-level gubernatorial races are also underway, poised to significantly shape the nation's trajectory. This year, 36 US states are electing new governors, the most influential elected officials within state governments. A notable number of these contests involve open seats, meaning no incumbent governor is seeking re-election. In 19 of these races, the current officeholder is either ineligible due to term limits, such as California Democrat Gavin Newsom, or has chosen not to run again, like Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds. This substantial turnover presents an opportunity for significant leadership changes across several states.

The Significance of Gubernatorial Power: Governors serve as the chief executives of their states, responsible for overseeing government departments and agencies that deliver public services. Their authority varies by state, but generally includes proposing budgets, appointing key state officials, directing the enforcement of laws, and issuing executive orders. They also hold the power to sign or veto legislation passed by their state's legislature.

One of the most prominent areas where governors exert influence is reproductive rights. Following the US Supreme Court's 2022 decision eliminating the constitutional right to abortion access, state governments have become central to determining the legality of the procedure. Approximately 13 state legislatures have enacted complete or near-total abortion bans. However, the Guttmacher Institute reports that around a dozen governors have issued executive orders to mitigate the impact of these bans, providing immediate protections for providers and patients, particularly in states like North Carolina where the governor supports abortion rights but the legislature does not.

Governors also play a role in the administration of US elections. In some states, they appoint election oversight officials, while in others, these officials are elected independently. Governors can also influence election laws by signing or vetoing legislation, thereby impacting how elections are conducted.

Challenging Federal Authority and Shaping Policy: Governors are instrumental in how states interact with the federal government. They can challenge federal policies in court or negotiate funding and program requirements with Washington. State governments are also key in implementing federally funded programs, making cooperation between governors and the White House vital. For instance, after the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, many governors decided whether their states would expand Medicaid. Governors like Steve Beshear of Kentucky and Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia used executive orders to adopt the expansion without legislative approval, while others, like Florida's then-Governor Rick Scott, opposed it, though he later dropped his opposition.

A Launchpad for Presidential Ambitions: The governor's office provides a prominent platform for aspiring national leaders. At least 17 former US presidents, including Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, served as governors before entering the White House. However, presidential aspirations can be hindered by backlash to state-level policies. The Eagleton Institute of Politics notes that only 53 percent of presidential nominees who were previously governors have won their races. For example, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's presidential bid in 2016 was impacted by criticism over actions during his governorship, including the "Bridgegate" scandal and his interaction with then-President Barack Obama during Hurricane Sandy.

Setting the Stage for 2028: This year's midterm gubernatorial races are anticipated to lay the groundwork for the 2028 presidential election. Several outgoing governors are considered potential candidates. Gavin Newsom, unable to seek a third term as California's governor, is widely seen as a leading contender for the Democratic nomination in 2028, having established himself as a critic of former President Donald Trump. Other potential Democratic presidential hopefuls, such as Wes Moore of Maryland and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, are also competing in midterm campaigns that could serve as precursors to future presidential bids.