Israel's Political Chess Match: Can Netanyahu's Rivals Forge a Majority After Deadlocked Election?

Intensified coalition talks are expected this week in Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political opponents aim to unseat him following an indecisive election. Neither Netanyahu's right-wing coalition nor the opposition bloc, led by former army general Gadi Eisenkot, secured a majority in last Tuesday's vote. However, the opposition bloc, combined with Arab politicians who have pledged support to oust Netanyahu after achieving a record 19 seats, could form a majority. This potential alliance, comprising the Eisenkot bloc and Arab parties, would command 67 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Nevertheless, such a deal is anticipated to be highly contentious within Israel, particularly given the current sensitive climate of the Middle East conflict.

The formal process for government formation is slated to commence on Wednesday, when President Isaac Herzog is set to receive the certified election results. Following this, he will initiate consultations before designating a candidate to form a government within a 42-day timeframe. President Herzog, speaking on Sunday, urged party leaders to explore "creative solutions" and has previously advocated for avoiding a stalemate that could necessitate a second election. Informal discussions among the prospective members of the anti-Netanyahu coalition have already commenced. Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister whose alliance finished third in the election, confirmed on Sunday his support for Mr. Eisenkot, a move that, while not entirely unexpected, had been subject to speculation regarding his potential alignment with Mr. Netanyahu's camp.

Despite ongoing vote counts, Mr. Netanyahu had raised doubts about the election's integrity, alleging that Arab parties had "stolen" the election. Arab politicians have refuted these claims, characterizing them as an effort to diminish their significant electoral gains. While authorities acknowledged that some irregularities were under investigation, they asserted on Sunday that such inquiries would not impact the overall outcome. Noam Sohlberg, head of Israel's Central Elections Committee, stated in a joint release with the Attorney General and internal security chief that the elections "were conducted properly" and that "the election results reflect the will of the voter." Mr. Netanyahu's Likud party expressed bewilderment at Mr. Sohlberg's comments, maintaining that the results were overshadowed by a "dark cloud."

Attention is now focused on whether the 19 representatives from the Arab Joint List and the Ra'am party will join a coalition or at least provide tolerance for a minority government. Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta'al or Arab Movement for Change party, indicated to Israel's Channel 12 that their objective is to "help anyone who wants to bring down this awful government," while clarifying that he does not seek a ministerial position. Mr. Tibi emphasized, "Without the Arab parties there won't be change." Some potential allies of Mr. Eisenkot had previously distanced themselves from relying on Arab support during the campaign, and any such arrangement is viewed as politically precarious. US ambassador Mike Huckabee commented that including politicians who have not condemned the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel would be "troubling."

Mr. Netanyahu currently remains in office. Amidst the US midterm elections on Tuesday, concerns have been voiced about the potential resumption of strikes on Iran by the US and Israel once both countries' elections conclude. Speculation suggests that such actions could potentially benefit Mr. Netanyahu, possibly leading to a unity government that would keep him in power. Some opposition figures have argued that it would be inappropriate for him to initiate major military action while serving in a caretaker capacity. Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats, stated on Sunday that Mr. Netanyahu lacks the "moral legitimacy" to launch a new campaign against Iran. "Israel's security must not be allowed to become a tool in Netanyahu's political survival struggle. Therefore, establishing an alternative government as soon as possible is critical," he asserted.