Election Forecaster Allan Lichtman Predicts Strong Democratic Gains in Midterms

Professor Allan Lichtman, renowned for accurately predicting Donald Trump's 2016 election victory using his "13 keys" system, has now offered his forecast for the upcoming US midterm elections. Lichtman, affiliated with American University, developed his influential "13 keys" methodology in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzing presidential campaign trends dating back to 1860. His system gained significant recognition for successfully predicting every US presidential election outcome since 1984, with a single exception.

While not employing his "13 keys" system for this midterm forecast, Professor Lichtman reviewed current polls, issue surveys, intangible factors, and approval ratings for Mr. Trump. He shared his predictions in a YouTube video released on Thursday night. Currently, the Republican Party holds majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Should the Democratic Party regain control of both chambers, Mr. Trump's influence is expected to diminish considerably.

"We are predicting there's a better than 90 per cent chance that the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives," stated Professor Lichtman. Regarding the Senate, he expressed increased confidence in the final days leading up to the election, despite a more challenging path to victory for Democrats. "I am upping my prediction. I originally had it at 67 per cent likelihood Democrats would retake the Senate. I am now going to say 70 per cent chance," he announced.

Professor Lichtman also commented on the gubernatorial races scheduled for Tuesday, suggesting that Democrats are likely to "take the lead or break even" in those contests. During the YouTube show, co-hosted by his son, Sam Lichtman, Professor Lichtman addressed concerns about the potential inaccuracy of polls. "I'm not just basing it on polling, I've looked at lots of other factors as well," he explained. He noted that in recent midterm elections, Democratic voter turnout has surpassed expectations, and current early voting data and voter enthusiasm surveys indicate an advantage for the party.

Focusing on the closely contested Senate race in Michigan between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, Professor Lichtman predicted that Mr. El-Sayed would become the first Muslim elected to the US Senate, despite facing Islamophobia. "You'd think this country is beyond religious bigotry, but Trump has dragged us down to lowest possible level," he remarked, drawing parallels to historical prejudice against Jewish people. He identified Michigan as a swing state that has historically leaned Democratic, noting that Joe Biden won the state by a significant margin in 2020.

Professor Lichtman initially gained widespread fame prior to the 2016 US presidential election when he correctly projected Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton, a prediction that initially drew skepticism but later propelled him and his system into the spotlight. Following his 2016 success, Mr. Trump sent him a congratulatory note. Professor Lichtman also accurately predicted Joe Biden's win against Mr. Trump in 2020.

However, the lead-up to the 2024 election presented a unique challenge. With President Biden not seeking re-election due to a poor debate performance and age concerns, and then-Vice President Kamala Harris entering the race against Mr. Trump under unconventional circumstances, Lichtman's system was tested. He maintained the relevance of his "13 keys" system, predicting Ms. Harris's victory in September 2024. On election night, however, his prediction proved incorrect for the first time since 1981, generating significant media attention and commentary from critics of his methodology.

In a subsequent YouTube stream, Professor Lichtman discussed potential reasons for his incorrect prediction, acknowledging that he was not the only forecaster to be wrong. He suggested that significant, unforeseen events can alter historical patterns, which he believed may have occurred in this election. He specifically cited the public criticism of President Biden following his debate performance against Mr. Trump, which he felt could have negatively impacted Ms. Harris. Lichtman also noted the difficulty in applying his system when Ms. Harris did not have to compete in a primary, and speculated that the proliferation of disinformation on social media might have led to irrational voter behavior, impacting the accuracy of his keys.

Professor Lichtman expressed his intention to closely examine the fundamental premises of his system over the next four years and remains open to suggestions for improvement. Despite the recent setback, he has continued to engage with the public through live-streamed podcasts and social media, maintaining a loyal following on his YouTube account, which has grown to 190,000 subscribers. He has also released a new book, "Great American Presidents: The Twelve who Transformed the Nation," but has largely refrained from making predictions for the 2028 US presidential election.