Black Sea Conflict Escalates: Attacks on Commercial Shipping Threaten Global Food Security

Attacks on commercial vessels have become a notable tactic in ongoing conflicts. In the Gulf region, these incidents are part of the sustained attrition between the United States and Iran. Meanwhile, in the Black Sea, they have increasingly characterized the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The majority of targeted vessels are not military ships but commercial ones transporting essential commodities like oil, gas, petroleum products, wheat, and corn – all vital for economic stability and human survival.

Commercial shipping in the Black Sea saw a significant escalation in October, with multiple drone attacks targeting at least nine vessels off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members. This development is viewed as a risky move by Moscow, potentially testing the alliance's unity. Several NATO members have voiced concerns over Russian incursions into their airspace, raising questions about the applicability of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which mandates collective defense.

Russia has consistently bombarded Ukrainian ports along the Black Sea and the Danube River. With its primary ports disrupted, Kyiv has sought alternative routes to export grain to markets in Africa and the Middle East. These alternatives include:

• The Danube corridor through Romania: Grain is transported from Ukraine's interior to the ports of Izmail and Reni on the Danube, then via Romania’s Sulina Channel to the Black Sea, or to the Romanian port of Constanta for transfer to larger vessels.
• Overland corridors through the European Union: Ukraine utilizes trains and trucks to move grain through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, with onward shipment from European ports on the Baltic, Adriatic, or Black Seas.
• The Ukrainian maritime corridor along NATO coastlines: Ships depart from ports in the Odesa region, navigate the western Black Sea near Romania and Bulgaria, proceed towards Turkiye, and pass through the Bosphorus Strait to reach global markets.

However, these alternative routes have not been spared from Russian attacks. According to maritime security firm Ambrey, the monthly rate of attacks associated with the Danube corridor was 3.7 times higher in the July-September quarter compared to the first half of 2026. Concurrently, the Danube's share of cargo handled at Ukrainian ports surged from approximately 10 percent in January-June to 74 percent in August 2026.

A War on Food, From Land to Sea

In their efforts to inflict maximum damage, neither Russia nor Ukraine has hesitated to employ all available means to deter or subdue the other. While the conflict initially focused on military and logistical facilities, it expanded to include infrastructure, ports, refineries, and energy installations. Currently, food-related facilities and vessels carrying grain and other food products are increasingly becoming targets.

Early in the war, Moscow targeted Ukraine’s grain and oilseed production infrastructure, obstructing access to Black Sea ports and repeatedly attacking grain-carrying vessels. This forced Ukraine to establish alternative export routes, including the Danube, which has itself become a target of Russian assaults.

Grain and vegetable oil exports are crucial to Ukraine's economy, accounting for about 40 percent of the country's total merchandise exports in the first half of the year. This explains Russia's focus on ports and vessels transporting these economically vital products. Ukraine's agriculture minister estimates that prolonged port closures could result in a loss of at least $8 billion between June this year and June 2027, equivalent to 20 percent of last year's total export revenues.

Russian attacks on cargo vessels and export infrastructure have largely halted maritime traffic through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, which previously handled approximately 90 percent of the country's agricultural exports. Conversely, Russian grain production and exports remained largely unaffected until recently. This summer, Kyiv began targeting Russian grain and vegetable oil export facilities, as well as commercial vessels, including grain carriers. This marked a significant shift in the economic warfare, as Ukrainian strikes had previously concentrated on Russian energy installations and military targets.

Ukrainian attacks have disrupted major Russian grain export terminals on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, compelling Moscow to reroute some exports to Baltic Sea ports. The Sea of Azov previously handled nearly a quarter of Russia's wheat exports.

Supply Shortages and Soaring Prices

Russia is the world's leading wheat exporter, with Ukraine ranking fifth. Together, they supply nearly 27 percent of global wheat exports. Recent attacks have driven wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to their highest levels since 2023, with prices increasing by about 20 percent in the first nine months of this year. The escalation of attacks by both sides has coincided with the peak wheat export season for each nation. Winter wheat, predominantly grown in Russia and Ukraine, is harvested in summer and exported in late summer and early autumn.

Ukrainian attacks, particularly those targeting Russian ports on the Sea of Azov and at Novorossiysk, have reportedly crippled an estimated 70 percent of Russia's grain export capacity. Meanwhile, recent Russian attacks have halted shipments from Odesa, disrupting nearly 90 percent of Ukrainian grain exports. Ukraine also intensified its attacks on cargo ships departing Russian ports in July and August, with Ukrainian military officials reporting strikes on 76 Russian vessels between July 6 and 11. In mid-July, Russia suspended exports through the Don-Azov Canal. Russian wheat exports via the Sea of Azov faced further setbacks after a Ukrainian attack on a major grain export terminal at the Russian port of Taman in late July.

Caught Between War and Drought

Misfortunes often compound, and the attacks on food-related facilities and supply routes involving two major global grain producers have coincided with a decline in global wheat production due to drought and climate change. The US Department of Agriculture estimates that the combined production of the world's seven largest wheat-exporting countries may decrease by 11 percent in the 2026-27 season. These combined factors present a dual threat to global food security: diminishing food production capacity and disrupted delivery to importing markets, exacerbated by rising transport costs and increased shipment security expenses.

Ultimately, the conflict in the Black Sea will lead to higher food prices, increased import bills, and the depletion of strategic reserves, particularly in Arab and African nations heavily reliant on imported grain. The disruption of energy supplies due to the war in Gulf waters is already contributing to inflation. Now, the reduction in food supplies stemming from the Black Sea conflict threatens to introduce another equally perilous source of inflation.