Israel's Political Stalemate: Netanyahu's Premiership in Jeopardy Amidst Election Deadlock

Protesters displayed portraits of Benjamin Netanyahu during a demonstration in support of the Israeli prime minister at Habima Square in Tel Aviv on October 31, 2026, following Israel's general election. The election results are set to be certified on Wednesday, but with neither of the leading political blocs securing a parliamentary majority, negotiations are at a standstill. Currently, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition garnered 53 seats in the October 27 vote, while the opposition alliance, led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, secured 48 seats. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset requires 61 seats. The remaining 19 seats were obtained by the two Arab-led lists: the Joint List and Ra’am (United Arab List). Netanyahu's camp has faced accusations of attempting to delegitimize the election results, citing unsubstantiated claims of foreign interference in the vote for Arab parties, which achieved their best-ever electoral performance. Despite this historic success, boosted by a significant surge in voter turnout, the two Arab-led lists remain politically isolated. While there have been indications that they might support, or at least not oppose, a government led by Eisenkot, their backing is a contentious issue within the opposition. This opposition is a broad and increasingly fragmented alliance that includes parties led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, as well as left-winger Yair Golan and right-winger Avigdor Lieberman.

Following a meeting on Tuesday, the main opposition leaders released a statement declaring their readiness to "act immediately" to replace Netanyahu's governing coalition with a "national emergency government" and to "translate the clear parliamentary majority in the Knesset into action." However, the statement did not outline a clear path to achieving the necessary majority, which would likely depend on an alliance with either the Arab-led lists or two ultra-Orthodox parties that have historically supported Netanyahu in exchange for exemptions from military service for some of their members.

Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak commented, "Essentially, we’re both on track to a government, and nowhere near being able to form one."

'Not clear who’s talking to who'

Although informal negotiations are reportedly underway, official talks to establish a governing coalition will commence only after the results are certified on Wednesday. Netanyahu's Likud party has already suggested it might not recognize the results, citing ongoing claims of irregularities in the Arab vote. These allegations have been investigated and dismissed by the police, while a separate probe by the internal security service, the Shin Bet, is still ongoing.

Once the results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will initiate consultations with all parties to determine the most suitable candidate to form a government, who may not necessarily be a party leader. Herzog, who previously lost to Netanyahu in a contentious 2015 election, is now in the unusual position of deciding who gets the first opportunity to form a government, while also considering Netanyahu's long-standing request for a pardon in his ongoing corruption trial.

One of Herzog's potential actions is to ask the Arab parties to recommend Eisenkot. If chosen, the leader of the centrist Yashar party would have an initial 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If he fails, Herzog could then invite another candidate to attempt the task.

Netanyahu, on Monday, asserted that Likud's first-place finish, with 27 seats, granted him the mandate to lead the next government. "We aim to form a broad government with our partners and with any other party that wishes to join, provided they do not support terrorism," he stated. Nevertheless, it is improbable that he can secure a majority without aligning with the Arab parties, whom he has consistently criticized, or without a significant number of defections from the opposition.

Regardless of the negotiation outcomes, the new Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on November 10. Barak noted that coordination within the opposition appears minimal, and personal animosities between Netanyahu and Herzog further complicate the already challenging negotiations. "It’s really not clear who’s talking to who," he added. "Earlier this week, they named [Bennett’s running mate] Lapid as their choice of speaker, which was apparently news to both Eisenkot and Bennett. Equally, Netanyahu now has to appeal to his political rival, Herzog, both to be given the responsibility of forming a government and to be pardoned before any conviction," Barak continued. "All the while, he’s claiming that the Arab parties cannot be considered legitimate partners in government, which makes it almost impossible for anyone to form a coalition with them."

Clear as mud

The effectiveness of the efforts to delegitimize the Arab parties remains uncertain. Ra’am was a key component of the Bennett-Lapid coalition in 2021–22, marking the first time an independent Arab party formally joined an Israeli government, and there is growing public pressure for this to happen again. Thousands rallied in Tel Aviv over the weekend, urging Eisenkot to form a deal with the Arab parties, reflecting the significant number of votes cast against Netanyahu’s governing coalition. However, following the meeting between opposition leaders on Tuesday, sources within the Joint List informed Al Jazeera that they did not anticipate being invited to support the bloc in the near future.

Speculation has shifted towards the possibility of one of the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas or United Torah Judaism (UTJ), particularly the latter, defecting to the opposition and supporting Eisenkot. Both Shas and UTJ have had strained relationships with Netanyahu's governing coalition. In fact, their withdrawal of parliamentary support in May, due to the coalition's perceived failure to pass a draft law exempting some of their ultra-Orthodox members from military service, significantly weakened its parliamentary majority.

Political analyst Nimrod Flaschenberg told Al Jazeera, "There are rumours that the Ashkenazi [Jews, who make up the bulk of the UTJ membership] are ready to break with Netanyahu and go to Eisenkot." He added, "I am sceptical, but even that would still leave them short of an overall majority, so they would still need support from one of the Arab parties, even if that is Ra’am supporting them from outside a formal coalition," regarding the parliamentary arithmetic.

Spoilers

Developments related to Israel's long-standing alliance with the United States loom over the situation. Barak suggested that the entire government-formation process could be disrupted by the results of the US midterm elections on Tuesday, which might weaken President Donald Trump, or be overshadowed by a renewed conflict with Iran. Netanyahu had particularly emphasized his relationship with Trump, whose Republican Party faced a challenging race to retain control of Congress, during the election campaign.

Furthermore, both Trump's rhetoric and the increased deployment of US forces in the region could signal the onset of renewed conflict with Iran, Israel's regional adversary. Yossi Mekelberg, a senior fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera, "Netanyahu cannot form a coalition. It’s a numbers game, and he just doesn’t have the numbers – no amount of talking and planning can change that, but an emergency could, and in Israel, there’s no more popular an emergency than one involving Iran."

In such a scenario, he speculated that the incumbent might request the opposition to support him, which could lead to a situation where a former captain dictates war policy to former generals. "There’s also the possibility that, however you want to define it, Israel has a successful war against Iran. That leads to a surge in popularity for Netanyahu when negotiations on a coalition resume, or [him] calling unnecessary, fresh elections," said Mekelberg.