Turkey Enters UN Chief Race, Aiming to Boost Erdogan's Global Standing

As the race for the next UN secretary general has seen leading candidates struggle to gain traction with a divided Security Council, Turkey has put forward its candidate, aiming to capitalize on the impasse. Ankara has nominated Feridun Sinirlioglu, a former foreign minister, to succeed Antonio Guterres, shifting the contest from one previously anticipated to be won by a candidate from Latin America. This move also provides Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a platform to advance his long-held argument that nations like Turkey deserve a more significant voice in an international system currently dominated by a few powerful states.

"Erdogan clearly smells an opportunity here," Ben Cohen, senior analyst with the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, told The National. He suggested that having an ally of Mr. Erdogan at the UN's helm would serve Ankara's political objectives and bolster its desired international image. Cohen further elaborated, "At a time when Turkey is pursuing a neo-Ottoman foreign policy, having an Erdogan ally as UN secretary general would help both politically and in terms of optics, proving, as far as the Turks are concerned, that they are a responsible international actor whose main concern is reviving the UN as an arbiter of peace and international law."

Turkey also has a vested interest in the UN's activities, given the Security Council's frequent discussions on conflicts and disputes involving its neighboring countries. "Given the number of files on the UN agenda concerning Turkey's neighbours, including Cyprus, Syria and Iran, it is only natural that Ankara aims for maximum influence in New York," stated Richard Gowan, programme director for Global Issues and Institutions at the International Crisis Group.

Turkey’s UN ambassador, Ahmet Yildiz, submitted the nomination on Friday, following an informal Security Council vote that indicated no candidate had secured broad agreement. Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan led the October 30 straw poll with 11 "encourage" votes, trailed by Argentina’s Rafael Grossi with nine, Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett with eight, and the UAE’s Lana Nusseibeh with seven. This poll is not a formal vote for recommendation.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan explained that Ankara initially abstained from the contest out of respect for the expectation that the next secretary general would hail from Latin America. However, after observing the process for approximately a year, Turkey decided to enter. "Once the deadlock became clear, we officially submitted our own candidate to the UN with a letter signed by our President," Mr. Fidan announced on Saturday, on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta, Georgia. "Our goal is to provide a diplomatic contribution aimed at overcoming the impasse."

Mr. Gowan commented that entering the race earlier might have carried a political cost. "Like Nusseibeh, Sinirlioglu had to wait until the Latin American candidates started to lose steam before joining the race," he noted. "I think both understood that they would face pushback if they looked like they were pre-empting the Latin Americans." Ms. Nusseibeh entered the race last month and has garnered support from Gulf Co-operation Council countries, Cyprus, Jordan, and Palestine, among others. She previously served as a Minister of State of the UAE and its permanent representative to the UN in New York from 2013 to 2024.

Mr. Sinirlioglu, 70, had a brief tenure as Turkey’s foreign minister in 2015 and represented the country at the UN from 2016 to 2023. In December 2024, he was appointed secretary general of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. It remains uncertain whether these qualifications will secure him sufficient backing in New York.

"I don’t think Sinirlioglu warrants the descriptor ‘compromise’ candidate. They include Greece, which is currently serving on the Security Council, Cyprus, Israel, a large swath of the European Union, and Middle Eastern states," said Mr. Cohen. Cyprus has already voiced its opposition. The government’s spokesman, Konstantinos Letymbiotis, informed reporters on Sunday that Mr. Sinirlioglu’s candidacy represented a "profound institutional contradiction." He stated, "It is indeed paradoxical for a country that has continued for 52 years to illegally occupy 37 per cent of the territory of the Republic of Cyprus, a United Nations member state, and to disregard Security Council resolutions, to seek to lead the very Organisation founded to safeguard international peace, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states." Mr. Letymbiotis added, "You cannot seek to lead the United Nations while refusing to respect the principles on which it is founded. You cannot seek to represent international law while continuing to violate it."

Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey programme at the Middle East Institute, observed that Ankara perceives itself as capable of bridging divides between the West, Russia, and the Global South. A campaign for the UN's highest office offers another avenue for this assertion. "But even if he doesn’t win, the candidacy gives Ankara an opportunity to raise its diplomatic profile, build support for its vision of global governance and reinforce Erdogan’s narrative that Turkey is a power whose voice can no longer be ignored," Ms. Tol commented. However, securing victory would necessitate the consent of the very powers whose privileges Mr. Erdogan has challenged. The Security Council requires at least nine votes and no veto from any of its five permanent members—the US, Britain, France, Russia, and China—to recommend a candidate. The response of these powers to Mr. Sinirlioglu remains uncertain.

Mr. Cohen suggested that Russia's experience working with Mr. Sinirlioglu at the OSCE might benefit his candidacy. "The Russians have worked productively with Sinirlioglu during his tenure at the OSCE, with [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov] praising him on a few occasions, so it could be that he will emerge as Moscow’s favoured candidate," he said. Russian support, however, could prompt opposition from Washington, although former President Donald Trump's relationship with Mr. Erdogan makes a US veto not a certainty. "Trump has cultivated Erdogan, so it’s not obvious that the US would exercise its veto, even though on key issues – Israel and the Palestinians, future of Cyprus, sanctions regimes – the US and Turkey are in sharp disagreement," Mr. Cohen explained. China's stance, he added, is more difficult to assess.