Democrats' Post-Midterm Power Play: Navigating Trump's Presidency and the 2028 Horizon

As the 2026 US midterm elections conclude, two key realities emerge: Democrats have secured a significant victory, and Donald Trump will continue as president for the next two years. This political landscape presents Congressional Democrats with three primary legislative strategies. The first involves constraining President Trump's actions. This includes efforts to conclude the Iran war, block many of his judicial and other nominations, halt aggressive immigrant detentions by ICE, and conduct oversight into Trump and his associates' financial dealings and alleged corruption. The second strategy focuses on presenting a positive policy agenda to shape the 2028 presidential election cycle, during which Trump will not be on the ballot. This lane emphasizes "messaging bills" on social issues, potentially including economic proposals like tax reform, and significant reforms to US global defense cooperation authorities and foreign policy, such as aid to Israel. The third approach targets the narrower set of issues where bipartisan cooperation with the White House might be achievable. Regulating the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) sector could fall into this category, though some of Trump's major financial backers may attempt to impede progress. Many legislative proposals in the first two lanes could face presidential vetoes, while others might be softened as the Democratic establishment seeks to moderate the progressive left's ambitious agenda, potentially leading to a less productive Congress.

In foreign policy, Congress's ability to enact legislation without presidential approval is limited. This includes war powers legislation to curb the president's ability to wage war without congressional consent, measures like the recent Senate resolution by Chris Van Hollen demanding reporting on Israel's human rights record, and committee subpoenas for investigating members of the Trump administration. However, the White House may ignore or obstruct these efforts, potentially resulting in protracted legal battles. Nevertheless, introducing "stand-alone" bills on issues like arms transfers to Israel remains valuable for framing public discourse, recording congressional stances, and establishing consensus positions, even if vetoed. In the Senate, these bills could also serve to highlight the progressive credentials of candidates considering a presidential run or to place more conservative members in difficult positions, influencing the discourse for the 2028 election and a potential future Democratic administration, though immediate impact is unlikely.

Legislators have at least three significant tools for potentially impactful debates. The first is Congress's constitutional "power of the purse." If Republican majorities fail to pass an annual funding bill by the end of the calendar year, Democrats will control US government funding for the next three years. This includes Israel's annual $3.3 billion allocation, which Trump had cast doubt upon. The president's call to end security assistance to Israel might expedite a reduction that would likely occur under Democratic leadership anyway. The new Congress can also revisit funding restrictions, such as the prohibition on funding the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) or limitations on funding the Palestinian Authority. These appropriations battles are expected to be intense, not only between parties but also within the Democratic caucus, and adherence to the law by the Trump administration regarding allocated funds remains a question.

The second area of focus is oversight. With their majority, House and Senate Democrats can dictate the agenda for investigations into the Trump administration, select witnesses, and use committee authority to shape public debate. Party leadership will likely prioritize issues that most damage the current administration and its potential successors, such as Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while minimizing disruption to party unity. Due to the seniority system, control of investigative committees will likely rest with establishment Democrats, who may be less inclined than newer members to criticize the US-Israel relationship. Nonetheless, a Democratic Congress is expected to investigate Trump’s Board of Peace, its funding, and influence. The US role in the current war with Iran is another probable oversight topic. The issues Democrats choose not to pursue through oversight will also be significant. The weaponization of anti-Semitism to target the US education sector and civil society, seen in previous Congresses, should cease. While Democratic leadership may seek to address genuine concerns from the Jewish community, the hope is for approaches grounded in reality and shared security, rather than as a means to suppress pro-Palestinian speech. However, many in the Democratic base desire more action, including hearings into the US role in enabling what they term Israel’s genocide in Gaza, a move that could lead to public accountability for senior officials from the Biden administration, which the establishment aims to avoid.

The specific outcomes of the midterms will be crucial. While the center of the Democratic Congressional caucus has shifted leftward, particularly in the House, the size of the majority is paramount. As recent Republican Houses have shown, a slim majority empowers a small faction to exert considerable leverage. However, the Democratic majority resulting from the midterms is expected to be secure enough that leadership will need to make few concessions to the party's left wing, likely leading to public disagreements, especially concerning appropriations bills. In essence, the Democrats' campaign for legislative power has succeeded, but in confronting an assertive White House that has shown disregard for legal precedent in its deference to Congress, their victory remains incomplete. Simultaneously, being the party out of power allowed Democrats to avoid some internal debates on critical issues like foreign policy concerning Israel. A congressional majority does not grant complete control, but it does mean they will now be responsible for the legislative branch's decisions. Whether they enact meaningful change or remain constrained by establishment conservatism may determine their prospects for electoral success in 2028. The American people, along with Republicans who may undergo their own evolution as Trump enters his "lame duck" years, will be observing the Democrats' actions and inactions. This makes progress in the upcoming Congress particularly vital for Democrats. Their challenge is clear: demonstrate credible leadership for change or risk being outmaneuvered by the "America First" right.