Yemen's 'Dawn of Yemen' Offensive Evolves into Protracted War of Attrition

A month after Yemen’s internationally recognized government launched a significant offensive to reclaim territories from Houthi fighters, the conflict has settled into a war of attrition. The operation, dubbed 'Dawn of Yemen,' began on October 5 with the stated aim of retaking all Houthi-held areas, including the capital, Sanaa. Residents like Mohammed Ahmed, a 40-year-old Sanaa inhabitant, initially experienced anxiety due to the prospect of intensified hostilities in densely populated areas. While Sanaa has remained relatively calm, aside from air strikes, the Houthis have made territorial gains in other provinces such as Taiz and Lahij.

Experts and researchers suggest that the 'Dawn of Yemen' offensive marks a new phase in the protracted conflict. Turki al-Goblan, head of the Saudi Daimumah Center for Studies, explained that the offensive is straining the Houthis' traditional survival strategies, which include adapting to strikes, leveraging complex geography, utilizing clandestine supply networks, and allegedly using civilians as human shields. The operation has reportedly targeted three key pillars of Houthi strategy: their fuel and supply system, maritime access around the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the western coast, and their reliance on certain tribes surrounding Sanaa. Al-Goblan posits that the current pace of attrition is exceeding the Houthis' capacity to replenish losses, potentially shifting attrition into a means of achieving victory.

Since seizing Sanaa in September 2014, the Houthis have controlled much of northern and western Yemen. Abdulsalam Mohammed, chairman of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, noted that the 'Dawn of Yemen' offensive has forced the Houthis to reposition their forces and military assets, making them vulnerable to air strikes. He indicated that while territorial gains continue, they may be short-lived if government airpower and ground forces maintain coordinated attacks. The Yemeni government reported significant Houthi casualties in the initial weeks of the offensive, though the Houthis have not confirmed these figures. Concurrently, the Houthis have continued to launch missiles and drones into Saudi Arabia.

Yazeed al-Jeddawy, a research manager at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, described the conflict as increasingly resembling a prolonged war of attrition, with the government offensive failing to decisively shift the balance of power in the first month. He highlighted the intertwining of the Yemeni conflict with the wider regional confrontation involving Iran and Saudi Arabia, noting Iran's use of the Houthis as leverage and Saudi Arabia's objective to curb Houthi capabilities and protect maritime routes like Bab al-Mandeb. Al-Jeddawy suggested a growing zero-sum approach from both sides, characterized by escalating intensity and a willingness to absorb significant losses.

The Houthi military spokesperson, Yahya Saree, reported a high number of coalition air strikes since the escalation. The Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council has reiterated its commitment to the 'Dawn of Yemen' objectives, including ending the Houthi “coup” and restoring state authority. Colonel Wadah al-Dubaish, spokesperson for the government-aligned Joint Forces on Yemen’s West Coast, stated that while the Houthis have expanded their military presence in Taiz, the cost has been substantial, with recent losses potentially exceeding those of previous years combined. Government forces reported recapturing key areas, including the Dhubab district and positions near Bab al-Mandeb, and strategic heights east of al-Hazm in al-Jawf governorate.

The Houthis' missile and drone attacks, including strikes that have caused casualties, underscore their resilient missile capability. Al-Jeddawy questioned the extent of external support, including intelligence, targeting assistance, components, technical expertise, or weapons replenishment, that enables these attacks. Al-Goblan, however, suggested these long-range attacks might be a compensatory measure for declining ground maneuverability, an attempt to maintain cohesion across fronts, and to create a political impact or an illusion of initiative amidst the ongoing 'Dawn of Yemen' offensive.