Lebanon on Edge: Residents Stockpile and Prepare Amidst Rising Fears of Israeli Escalation

In the southern Lebanese town of Abbasiyeh, Aya endured the risks of Israel's intensified war on Lebanon in March, with her neighbour's home being a target of an Israeli attack. Although attacks have seemingly subsided following an April ceasefire announcement, the sounds of conflict persist. "There’s always drones around and sounds of detonations, but we’ve grown thick skin," Aya told Al Jazeera. However, recent weeks have seen a surge in anxiety over a potential third Israeli escalation since 2024, leaving many Lebanese, particularly those in previously targeted areas, in a state of uncertainty. Aya's family has prepared extra medication for her grandparents, anticipating difficulties in obtaining supplies if conflict resumes. Others are stocking up on food, preparing emergency bags, and ensuring their electronic devices are charged. Aya expressed a desire to leave her home if attacks intensify again, stating, "I don’t have the energy for this anymore," and contemplating leaving Lebanon altogether due to the mental exhaustion of repeated displacement.

The conflict between the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah and Israel, ongoing since October 2023, has resulted in approximately 9,000 deaths in Lebanon, according to the Lebanese health ministry, with significant escalations in the autumn of 2024 and in March and April 2026. Israel's invasions have led to the occupation of up to 10 kilometres of territory, establishing a "Yellow Line" and causing widespread destruction in towns and villages below it, rendering border areas potentially uninhabitable for years.

A ceasefire was declared in April, shortly after Israel conducted over 100 attacks on Lebanon in under ten minutes, causing more than 350 casualties. In June, Beirut and Tel Aviv agreed to a US-brokered framework for "pilot zones," involving an Israeli military withdrawal and the deployment of the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah. Despite this agreement and a subsequent easing of active fighting, Israel continues its attacks and destruction in the far south. Those residing above the Yellow Line, while mostly out of immediate danger, report constant drone activity and explosions, along with intermittent access issues to their land.

Recent reports suggest US President Donald Trump is considering attacks on Iran in coordination with Israel, prompting warnings from Iran of retaliation against regional targets. This has raised concerns about Hezbollah's potential return to attacking Israel, given its backing from Iran. Israeli officials have also accused the Lebanese army of failing to uphold its end of the framework agreement, a claim denied by the army, which analysts suggest could be a pretext for further military action in Lebanon. "When it comes to Lebanon, Israel doesn’t need that instigation," commented Mohamad Bazzi, a Lebanese political analyst. "It destroyed more of the south under the ceasefire of April 17 than before it. Again and again, Israel has shown its willingness to carry out its policies, to destroy as much of south Lebanon as possible, to make it uninhabitable, and to punish the Shia community and there is no reason it won’t do more of the same if the US and Israel restart the Iran war on a large scale."

Ramez, a resident of Beirut's southern suburb of Haret Hreik, recounted the trauma of hearing explosions and witnessing a neighbouring building collapse on his apartment in July 2024. He has since relocated to his family's second home, describing the ongoing psychological toll: "The war for me never really stopped... Even if every country in the world disposed of every single bomb and every single bullet and every single gun, the trauma will stay there." His family has postponed their return to their Beirut home due to fears of renewed attacks, with Ramez expressing, "Personally, I can’t possibly even consider sleeping there without hallucinating the building collapsing in on me again." He, like others from Dahiyeh and the south, is maintaining charged batteries, a steady water supply, and a full car tank. Karim Safieddine, a non-resident fellow with the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, noted that preparations have been underway for months, with Dahiyeh emptying slightly at night and residents having "very, very delicate escape routes that’s very quick."

Beyond the pervasive anxiety, Lebanon faces significant economic hardship. The World Bank projects inflation to reach 17.5 percent this year, with analysts warning of severe security implications. "As this cycle repeats itself, people get worn down, exhaust their savings and their goodwill, and I think that adds to the possibility of social explosion," Bazzi stated. "Lebanese society will blame Hezbollah for instigating against Israel and by extension [some will blame] the entire Shia community." Jad Dilati, a Lebanese analyst from Nabatieh, mentioned that some families are maintaining rent payments for alternative accommodations, a luxury not all can afford after three years of conflict. Analysts also caution that renewed fighting could exacerbate sectarian tensions, with Israel reportedly attempting to sow internal discord by advising non-Shia communities against hosting displaced individuals. This, coupled with the existing economic strain, could ignite sectarian conflict. "It is a combustible mix that could explode through something unexpected," Bazzi concluded.