Israel's President Herzog Navigates Tightrope to Form Government Amidst Political Stalemate

Israeli President Isaac Herzog faces a critical decision regarding the first opportunity to form a government, following an inconclusive election that left both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his primary rival, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, without a clear parliamentary majority. President Herzog has indicated that he will assign a candidate the task of forming a government on Sunday. While Eisenkot has garnered the endorsement of a majority of lawmakers, this support is contingent on parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, which secured a record 19 seats in the October election. However, Eisenkot has stated his intention to exclude these parties from his potential government.

During consultations between party leaders and President Herzog, which concluded on Thursday, Eisenkot received endorsements from 67 out of 120 Knesset members, compared to Netanyahu's 46. Netanyahu's bloc fell short of its required 53 seats, as United Torah Judaism, a long-standing ally, withheld its endorsement due to disagreements over the coalition's stance on exempting ultra-Orthodox Israelis from military service. President Herzog has not yet committed to a specific candidate, noting that despite the apparent numbers, 'mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves' complicate the coalition-building process. Prior to the October 27 elections, reports suggested the president favored a national unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot's rival parties to avert further elections.

The challenge of forming a government is significant, as no bloc has achieved the 61 seats necessary for a majority. Netanyahu's right-wing and religious alliance holds 53 seats, while four Jewish-led parties supporting Eisenkot have 48, and Arab-led parties hold 19. Eisenkot has ruled out governing with the Arab-led parties, which would have provided him with a 67-seat bloc. Securing the support of the two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, would grant him exactly 61 seats. United Torah Judaism has hinted at potential support for the right price, but Shas has already endorsed Netanyahu. Netanyahu, conversely, would need to persuade an opposition party to join his coalition. A unity government, with Netanyahu and Eisenkot potentially rotating the prime minister role and excluding Arab-led parties, is another possibility, though many rivals of Netanyahu have refused to serve under him.

Currently, it appears unlikely that Arab-led parties will be part of the next government. These parties include the Joint List, an alliance of three parties, and the United Arab List (Ra’am), holding 11 and eight seats respectively. Ra’am has expressed willingness to join an Eisenkot-led government, while the Joint List has declined to join but offered external support. Both endorsed Eisenkot during consultations with President Herzog. However, Eisenkot has stipulated conditions for their inclusion, such as recognizing Hamas as a 'terrorist organisation.' Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas, whose party was part of an anti-Netanyahu coalition in 2021 and made history as the first party representing Palestinians to join an Israeli government, has expressed support for disarming Hamas but stopped short of labeling it a 'terror' group. Israeli law does permit Eisenkot to become prime minister with fewer than 61 seats if his proposed government secures a parliamentary confidence vote, which these parties could help facilitate. Eisenkot could potentially form a minority government initially and later expand it by gaining the support of the two ultra-Orthodox parties through concessions on the conscription issue.

Some of Eisenkot's allies have opposed relying on Palestinian lawmakers, while Netanyahu's Likud party has warned against cooperating with Arab-led parties, deeming it 'dangerous to Israel.' These positions are viewed by many observers as indicative of the secondary status of Palestinian citizens in Israel. Senior Joint List member Ahmad Tibi commented to The Associated Press that rejecting a partnership would demonstrate Israel is an 'ethnocracy, not an absolute democracy for all citizens.'

Palestinian-led parties primarily seek an end to Netanyahu's leadership. The Joint List stated that its unanimous backing for Eisenkot was in response to a 'public demand' to prevent Netanyahu and his government from returning to power. By strengthening Eisenkot's position, they hoped to reduce the likelihood of a unity government that would keep Netanyahu in office. Their support does not negate their reservations about an opposition that has not adequately addressed Netanyahu's policies or incitement against Palestinian citizens of Israel. In exchange for their external support, Arab-led parties are requesting assurances for Palestinian citizens, including an end to house demolitions, measures against incitement, action on crime, and a political pathway for Palestinians.

Tibi informed The AP that while he held no illusions about resolving Israel's conflicts or achieving a Palestinian state, a 'repair government' could improve the lives of Palestinian citizens, potentially by addressing violent crime in their communities. Ra’am leader Abbas also identified ending the government of Netanyahu, along with far-right figures like Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, as a priority.

Should no government be successfully formed, the nominee chosen by President Herzog will have 28 days, extendable by 14, to assemble a coalition. If this nominee fails, another will be selected for a 28-day period. If the second nominee also fails, a parliamentary majority can endorse a third candidate for a final 14 days. Failure to form a government after these attempts would result in the dissolution of the Knesset and a new election being called within 90 days. In such a scenario, Netanyahu would continue as caretaker prime minister. Analyst of Israeli affairs, Nehru Jamhour, suggested to Al Jazeera that this prolonged impasse is the most probable outcome and aligns with Netanyahu's preferred strategy, as he anticipates a repeat election could weaken his rivals and suppress turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel.