UAE Poised to Lead Global Solar Power Generation by 2031, International Energy Agency Reports

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is on track to become the world's leading generator of solar electricity by 2031, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The agency's 2026 Renewables report indicates that the Middle East's renewable energy capacity is expected to triple over the same period. The UAE, the Arab world's second-largest economy, is projected to generate over 4,000 kilowatt-hours of solar power per capita within the next six years.

The IEA report places Gulf nations Oman and Qatar among the top 10, at third and fifth respectively. Australia and Bulgaria follow at second and fourth, with Greece, Austria, Spain, China, and Chile rounding out the top 10. All countries in this leading group are anticipated to produce at least 2,000 kWh per capita by 2031, significantly exceeding the global average of approximately 800 kWh.

Globally, solar power is set to constitute about three-quarters of the total renewable electricity capacity, which is forecasted to grow by nearly 85 percent by 2031. The IEA analysts noted that while average per-capita solar output will more than double by 2031, leading countries will still generate multiple times this average, highlighting disparities in deployment and access.

The UAE has been a strong proponent of renewable energy as part of its economic diversification strategy. Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei announced at the Middle East Energy summit in September that the UAE has raised its clean energy target, encompassing renewables and nuclear power, to 35 percent by 2030-2031. Meeting this goal necessitates new projects, increased competition, and greater private sector involvement in power generation.

The IEA's projections align with expectations for the Middle East to triple its renewable energy capacity by 2031, mirroring similar growth anticipated in Africa and Southeast Asia. The agency attributes this surge in emerging and developing economies to new ambitions, energy security benefits, supportive policies, and the increasing competitiveness of wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies, leading to an almost 20 percent upward revision from its previous report.

Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the Arab world, is expected to quintuple its renewable energy expansion by 2031, with the UAE following closely. This marks a significant structural shift in the region's energy market. Globally, the renewable market capacity is projected to reach nearly 4,800 GW between 2026 and 2031, a 57 percent increase over the preceding six years. China is expected to remain the dominant market, with India advancing to second place. The Middle East's contribution to global renewable capacity growth is expected to increase substantially due to robust policy support and market development, according to IEA analysts.