UN Warns of Worsening Middle East Water Crisis as El Niño Intensifies

Despite experiencing "unusually" heavy rainfall in certain areas, the Middle East continues to grapple with persistent water shortages, the United Nations reported on Monday. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) issued a stark warning that a potent El Niño, predicted to intensify, could trigger more extreme weather events in 2027. This shift in rainfall patterns underscores the increasing unpredictability of weather in a region already severely affected by water scarcity, extreme heat, and mounting pressure on its agricultural sector.

The WMO's State of the Climate 2026 update, released during the opening day of the Cop31 climate summit in Turkey, noted that "unusually high precipitation totals were recorded in the Middle East, after dry conditions in 2025." These wetter conditions extended northward through Eastern Europe and Central Asia. However, this increased rainfall has not alleviated the region's deep-seated, long-term water challenges.

The Middle East remains among the global areas where freshwater supplies, encompassing underground reserves, rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, have fallen below normal levels. Worldwide, the WMO indicated that the amount of water stored on land has been in decline since 2014. In 2025, regions such as the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia were particularly affected by persistent shortages. Globally, 42% of assessed areas reported below-normal freshwater storage last year, a significant increase from the long-term average of 25%.

These findings highlight the inadequacy of even periods of heavy rain to compensate for years of water scarcity, especially in regions already straining their groundwater resources. This warning comes as the world prepares for a powerful El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon expected to exacerbate extreme weather events against the backdrop of ongoing global warming.

WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo explained that El Niño releases heat from the ocean, which is currently at its warmest recorded levels, thereby intensifying weather events. "We are supercharging our weather, and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for," Saulo stated. She also pointed out that the past four years have been the warmest in the 177-year observational record, with ocean heat reaching record highs for the tenth consecutive year.

The WMO cautioned that the current El Niño could rank among the strongest on record, potentially leading to more extreme heat and severe weather in 2027. Global temperatures during the first nine months of the year were 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, placing the current year on track to be among the four hottest ever recorded. European governments issued health warnings over the summer due to high temperatures.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres remarked, "We have entered a new age of climate extremes. A supersized El Niño is colliding with a planet already superheated by man-made climate change. Climate records keep falling. The human costs keep rising." He urged leaders to accelerate emissions cuts, transition from fossil fuels, and provide essential finance and protection to vulnerable nations, emphasizing that those least responsible for climate change are suffering the most.

El Niño develops when waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean experience unusual warming, altering global weather patterns. This can result in drought in some areas and heavy rainfall and flooding in others, while also contributing to higher global temperatures. The phenomenon strengthened rapidly after La Niña conditions concluded earlier this year and is expected to persist until at least February 2027. The impacts could be particularly severe for countries already facing food shortages, limited water supplies, and humanitarian crises.

The report also revealed that global sea levels reached record highs in June, July, and August, marking the highest readings since satellite records began in 1993. Sea levels are now rising at an accelerated rate compared to three decades ago, increasing from an average of 2.4 mm per year between 1993 and 2002 to 3.9 mm annually between 2017 and 2026. This rise is primarily attributed to melting glaciers and ice sheets, along with the thermal expansion of seawater as oceans warm.

Approximately 900 million people, or about 11% of the global population, reside in low-lying coastal areas vulnerable to rising seas and flooding. In 2025, glaciers worldwide lost an estimated 408 billion tonnes of ice, sufficient to raise global sea levels by approximately one millimeter. Ocean temperatures continue to climb, with ocean heat reaching a record high in 2025 and early 2026 measurements indicating further increases. Oceans absorb over 90% of the excess heat trapped by global warming, serving as a critical indicator of the planet's changing climate.