Dr. Gargash: Diplomacy and Deterrence Crucial to Navigating Iran War's Impact

Deterrence and diplomacy are complementary strategies, not conflicting ones, even as Iran continues its regional strikes and indirect negotiations to end the ongoing war, stated Dr. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, on Monday. Speaking at the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate forum, Dr. Gargash emphasized that deterrence serves not only to prevent further aggression but also to foster the political climate necessary for diplomatic success. He asserted that these principles reinforce each other.

Since the commencement of the Iran war in February, marked by attacks from the US and Israel, Tehran has reportedly targeted civilian areas in Gulf states, Jordan, and Iraq, alongside shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have recently conducted attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and airports. Mediated talks between the US and Iran are progressing, driven by increasing pressure for de-escalation.

The recent Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, acknowledged by the US administration, signals a public inclination against war. This development raises questions about potential shifts in US foreign policy concerning the region. "While it may be premature to definitively assess the impact of the US midterm elections on Washington's approach to Iran, we remain optimistic that the outcome will bolster efforts towards diplomatic solutions that secure lasting peace and stability in the Gulf," Dr. Gargash commented.

In his address, Dr. Gargash also expressed regret over what he perceived as a lack of stronger solidarity within the Gulf in response to the Iranian attacks that have affected every state in the region since the war began on February 28. He reflected that collective action during Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the Arab uprisings demonstrated a more robust solidarity. "This does not necessitate complete agreement on all matters; differences among neighbors are natural. However, there is a clear understanding that we must work to rebuild trust in our collective relationships within the Gulf," he stated.

Despite recent provocations from Iran, including a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sunday warning that ships using unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz would face explosions and fires, Dr. Gargash indicated that Iran and the Gulf states share a common objective of preventing a protracted war. "Iran and the Gulf states share a mutual interest in averting prolonged confrontations and re-establishing greater predictability in their relations," he noted. "Dialogue is not a concession but a strategic imperative." Dr. Gargash concluded by stating that future discussions must move beyond the outcomes seen throughout the Iran war and should reflect a "change in behavior."