Stalled Diplomatic Reset: Why Sheikh Hasina's Exile and Political Activity Threaten Bangladesh-India Relations

New Delhi and Dhaka had been quietly planning Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s first visit to India since taking office earlier this year, when a news conference shattered those efforts. Former Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina, convicted of crimes against humanity in her country, addressed a news conference held in the heart of the Indian capital by video on August 5, where she, her son and other party colleagues criticised the mass uprising that had brought her down.

Bangladesh responded swiftly, saying that it was “outraged” that Hasina had been allowed to speak publicly from Indian soil, where she has been in exile since her ouster in August 2024. Dhaka had specifically warned New Delhi against allowing political activities that could affect bilateral relations. Bangladesh subsequently said a “propitious environment” was needed before the trip, while asking New Delhi to act on extradition requests involving Hasina and other fugitives. India says the requests remain “under examination” through established procedures. But interviews with Bangladeshi officials and analysts suggest the immediate dispute may be more nuanced than a simple extradition standoff. The key question may be less when India hands Hasina over than what India allows her to do while she remains there.

Faisal Mahmud, a former press minister at the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, said extradition and Hasina’s political activities should be treated as separate issues. The stalemate between Bangladesh and India stems largely from New Delhi giving Sheikh Hasina a literal megaphone while she remains in exile there. Extradition, he said, was an entirely different and more complicated matter that the Rahman government understood.

During an April 4, 2025 meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, then head of Bangladesh’s interim administration, asked New Delhi to prevent Hasina from making incendiary statements from Indian soil. Humaiun Kobir, deputy head of Bangladesh’s Foreign Ministry, told Al Jazeera that Dhaka wanted a good and working relationship with India based on trust and mutual respect, but letting terrorists like Sheikh Hasina destabilise the country from India was unacceptable.

Hasina was sentenced to death in absentia by Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal after being convicted of crimes against humanity over the deadly crackdown on the 2024 uprising, a verdict she rejects as politically motivated. While Dhaka has formally sought her extradition, analysts like David Bergman argue that the government is playing to public opinion and may actually prefer that Hasina remain outside the country to avoid the complex domestic consequences of her return.

Despite the diplomatic friction, practical engagement continues. A Confederation of Indian Industry delegation visited Dhaka for talks, and bilateral merchandise trade remains above $12bn annually. Experts like Shahab Enam Khan, Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, and Sreeradha Datta emphasize that geography and structural interdependence ensure that neither India nor Bangladesh can stay disengaged for long, leaving both nations searching for the right political space to move forward.