Fears of Russian Mobilisation Mount Amid Intimidating Recruitment Tactics

Owing to his illness, 26-year-old Sasha from Orenburg, a city in Russia close to the Kazakhstan border, has a Category V military ID, which under normal circumstances makes him ineligible for service. But not during wartime. Just before partial mobilisation was declared in 2022, he considered leaving for Kazakhstan. But while awaiting the bus, he struck up a conversation with his soon-to-be girlfriend. As they turned back together, they decided against making the drastic move.

Over the past year, however, they have grown increasingly anxious. “Since mid-2025, my girlfriend and I have been experiencing a severe decline in mental health. We see psychiatrists and take antidepressants,” Sasha told Al Jazeera, requesting to be identified only by his first name to protect his anonymity. “I don’t go outside unless it’s urgent and try never to be alone. I carry pepper spray for protection against aggression if it happens, like in Penza.”

Since June, there have been reports of attempted press-ganging in Penza, 625km (388 miles) southeast of Moscow. Recent footage shared on social media has shown individuals dressed in plainclothes trying to force fighting-age men into vehicles to take them to the recruitment centre, while weeping women try to intervene. Potential recruits have also been reportedly summoned to police stations under bureaucratic pretexts, then beaten or threatened into signing a military contract.

Local authorities deny the reports, claiming only men attempting to dodge the draft, who have already been mobilised, are being approached. They have also accused residents who have shared footage of the roundups of spreading disinformation. Although the Penza roundups have received attention lately, local authorities throughout Russia have been accused of coercive methods for some time.

“In October 2022, a friend was stopped at night by military police,” said Sasha. “They identified themselves as civilians and didn’t show identification. They demanded a passport or military ID, and that he accompany them. My friend ran away.”

According to Mikhail Liberov, from the Conscientious Objectors Movement, military recruiters select vulnerable targets who are susceptible to seduction, deception, or blackmail. This group includes drug addicts, alcoholics, mentally unwell people, those with large debts, and migrants. Men above 35 years of age are also approached, and some are willing to risk their lives for big money and the chance to become heroes, alongside the constant threat of prison.

Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the recent roundups in Penza are likely isolated instances of local authorities trying to fill their recruitment quotas, rather than a systemic, nationwide effort.

These renewed recruitment incidents come amid rumours of a mobilisation effort and an expected Russian offensive this winter. “I’ve already accepted that mobilisation will still happen, unless something happens that forces Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine,” said Liberov. In September 2022, Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing for partial mobilisation, and while that effort ended two months later, the decree remains in effect.

However, the recruitment pool is dwindling. According to the independent Russian news site IStories, the number of people voluntarily signing military contracts halved by late 2025. The Center for Strategic and International Studies puts the number of deaths among Russian forces since the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 at nearly 450,000.

“I only live once. I’m not going to sacrifice it for someone else’s wishes and will fight to the bitter end,” said Sasha. Meanwhile, Vladimir from Ulan-Ude stated he is preparing for a possible draft and would insist on alternative civil service in the event of an escalation.

Earlier this summer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed the Kremlin was secretly preparing for a mass mobilisation, a claim backed by reports in Russian independent media. In June, lawmaker Andrey Gurulev of the governing United Russia party wrote on Telegram about the need for a new large-scale mobilisation. Yet, experts note that Russia's primary hurdle lies in the quality rather than the sheer quantity of its military personnel.