Egypt Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty Warns of Regional Volatility While Urging Continued Peace Talks with Iran

Egypt faces a region erupting in crisis, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty has said, as Cairo works to mediate between the US and Iran, contain the war in Gaza and protect its share of the Nile waters.

“We are living in a very, very volatile region,” Mr Abdelatty told On The Record with Hadley Gamble. “It is unpredictable.” A framework agreement, signed by the US and Iran in June aimed at providing impetus for talks to end the war between them, collapsed last month.

“There is a problem, and there is, you know, no peace, no war for the time being,” Mr Abdelatty said, describing the situation as a “deadlock.” The agreement was meant to lead to sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but neither has emerged.

Mr Abdelatty said Iran had assured him that it was “ready and committed” to the framework agreement, but acknowledged doubts about who controls policy in the country. He said that, in his view, negotiations were out of the hands of diplomats and were being handled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

“But we have to continue contacting our counterparts to push for peaceful solutions,” he said, adding that the goal is to develop the framework into a final peace agreement that will resolve all contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions imposed by the US, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a permanent ceasefire.

Discussing the domestic situation, Mr Abdelatty said the Egyptian economy was facing “a perfect storm” due to the combined effects of the Gaza war, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Houthi rebels on Red Sea shipping. The consequences for traffic through the Suez Canal, he added, have cost his country about $11 billion. Despite Egypt’s unprecedented debt, Mr Abdelatty insists the economy has proved resilient, buoyed by growth he estimated at 5.5 per cent and a “huge” reserve of foreign currency.

Addressing the plight of Palestine, Mr Abdelatty noted that while efforts to secure a long-term peace in Gaza continue to stall, the biggest obstacle was Israel. Mediators from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey had managed to gather all Palestinian factions, including Hamas, in Cairo and secure an agreement on the next steps towards implementing a US-brokered peace plan in the enclave.

“Hamas and the other Palestinian factions agreed to hand over all heavy and light weapons, and to move forward with the Palestinian National Committee taking over Gaza for a temporary period,” he said. However, he added, the first phase of the peace plan has yet to be implemented in full, with terms including the entry to Gaza of 600 aid lorries a day and the start of efforts to rebuild hospitals remaining unfulfilled. With winter approaching, Mr Abdelatty warned that “people cannot sustain these very harsh conditions” as Israel is not allowing caravans or tents to enter.

Mr Abdelatty also outlined a push within the Arab League for a collective security arrangement based on Palestinian statehood, respect for sovereignty and rejection of non-state actors. Furthermore, Egypt continues to struggle with growing numbers of refugees, hosting 10 million refugees, of whom 5.5 million are from Sudan and 1.5 million from Syria.

Turning to water security, Mr Abdelatty called it an existential threat to Egypt surpassing even national security. Egypt depends almost entirely on the Nile and has been locked in a dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was completed last year. With annual water demand reaching about 94 billion cubic metres and the population growing by 2.5 million people a year, Mr Abdelatty warned that Egypt reserves the right to act in accordance with international law, including Article 51 of the UN Charter, if water flows are interrupted.