New Poll Shows Most US Democrats in Early 2028 Primary States Oppose Military Aid to Israel

A pro-Palestinian protester takes part in a vigil for Gaza in Dearborn, Michigan, on August 14, 2025. According to a new poll, most United States Democratic voters in states that will play a crucial role in selecting the party's nominee for the 2028 presidential election are opposed to providing military aid and weapons to Israel.

The survey, which was released late on Monday by the IMEU Policy Project, highlights a continuing decline in Israel's popularity among US Democrats. Conducted by the research firm YouGov, the poll revealed that the majority of voters in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia believe that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

These specific states are scheduled to hold the first primary contests for the 2028 elections, giving them immense influence over the selection of the Democratic nominee. In Michigan, an overwhelming 80 percent of respondents—including 91 percent of voters under the age of 45—agreed when asked if they believe Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

Additionally, 52 percent of respondents in South Carolina, which hosts the first official Democratic primary of the 2028 campaign cycle, stated they oppose selling arms to Israel. Support for imposing sanctions on Israel and enforcing the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also evident across all six states.

Hamid Bendaas, a spokesperson for the IMEU Policy Project, emphasized that support for Israel within the Democratic base has diminished significantly. He pointed out that in South Carolina, only 2 percent of surveyed individuals favored military support for Israel, despite mainstream media often framing robust policies against Israel as unrealistic.

The Democratic Party finalized its 2028 primary schedule by placing South Carolina first on January 22, followed by contests in the remaining five states. Although the election is still 16 months away, the poll results may heavily influence the platforms of upcoming Democratic candidates.

While traditional Democratic leaders such as former President Joe Biden, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and House Representative Hakeem Jeffries have historically maintained strong support for Israel, internal party divisions have grown. In July, over 100 House Democrats voted to block weapons shipments to Israel, and progressive critics continue to score primary victories across the country, including Abdul El-Sayed securing the Democratic nomination for a US Senate seat in Michigan.

Bendaas noted that future presidential contenders will likely need to align closely with these voter sentiments to successfully bridge the gap between public opinion and official party policy.