Escalating Violence in Northern Mozambique Deepens Severe Humanitarian Crisis as Conflict Nears Its Ninth Year

People displaced by fighting sit in a camp for the internally displaced, in the town of Quitunda, Mozambique September 22, 2021. The Mozambique government has initiated a two-day forum to address the future of displaced citizens as a devastating armed conflict in the northern Cabo Delgado region enters its ninth year. Since 2017, the resource-rich northern territory has faced attacks from an ISIL-affiliated armed group, locally known as al-Shabab—though distinct from the Somali group of the same name. Despite heavy troop deployments, authorities have failed to eliminate the group, and renewed attacks since last August have triggered a massive surge in humanitarian needs, impacting all 17 districts of Cabo Delgado for the first time.

Over 1.3 million people have fled their homes since the conflict began, with the United Nations reporting an additional 100,000 recently displaced in late 2025. With a military resolution proving elusive, discussions surrounding potential negotiations are gaining traction. Between January and July, at least 28,163 individuals were displaced, 65 percent of whom are women and children, with intense clashes centered around the strategic town of Mocimboa de Praia and previously secure hubs like Mueda. Compounding the crisis, global aid cuts led by the United States have forced numerous humanitarian organizations to scale back operations or withdraw entirely.

The group driving the insurgency, Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP), maintains an estimated 300 to 500 members but remains one of Africa's most lethal ISIL affiliates. According to Peter Bofin of the conflict monitor ACLED, the faction survives by protecting illicit financial networks and securing local support. Originally emerging in the early 2010s within a marginalized, predominantly Muslim region rich in natural resources like gas, gold, and rubies, the group launched its formal rebellion in 2017 under the leadership of the late Abu Yasir Hassan “Abu Qasim”, with a current de facto leadership under a Tanzanian known as “Farido.”

The Mozambican government's initial military response struggled due to a small, underequipped, and occasionally compromised military force—concerns echoed by President Daniel Chapo regarding security leaks. To counter the threat, Maputo deployed a regional coalition, signing agreements with Rwanda to station the Rwandan Defence Forces and welcoming a 2,200-strong contingent from the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Although these allied offensives pushed ISMP back in 2021, the subsequent exit of SADC forces in 2024 allowed the insurgent group to regain influence in areas such as Macomia and Quissanga.

As the conflict approaches a full decade, President Chapo is signaling a willingness to explore negotiations alongside continued ground operations, despite challenges in identifying clear leadership structures to engage. Meanwhile, ISMP has adapted by strengthening local revenue sources—including kidnapping, taxing illegal gold mining, and engaging in direct mining activities—while simultaneously attempting to rebrand with a less aggressive community approach amid ongoing resistance from Mozambican forces.