How a 95 Percent Collapse in Strait of Hormuz Traffic Redefined Global Maritime Shipping

Six months into the United States-Israel war on Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to drive one of the worst maritime shipping disruptions in decades. Traffic through the 33km (21-mile) chokepoint has plummeted from more than 100 vessels a day to just five, severely impacting the flow of oil, gas, and goods across the globe. This crisis in a single narrow passage has disrupted an industry that carries about 80 percent of the world’s trade.

According to UNCTAD, the UN’s trade and development body, approximately 80 percent of world trade by volume moves by sea at some point. Different vessels serve distinct purposes: oil tankers carry crude oil, refined petroleum, and chemicals—often via Very Large Crude Carriers, or VLCCs; container ships transport consumer goods in steel boxes; and dry bulk carriers move raw materials like grain, coal, and iron ore. Lloyd’s List estimated that dry bulk carriers made about 7,000 Hormuz transits a year before the war.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint carrying more than one-third of global seaborne crude oil and nearly one-third of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) flows, alongside significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers in London, noted that unlike other chokepoints, there is no alternative maritime route, making the disruption of cargo volume uniquely severe.

Crude exports from the Gulf region have dropped by nearly half (47 percent) compared with pre-war levels, falling from about 17 million barrels a day in 2025 to roughly nine million bpd as of August 2026. Direct crude exports via the strait have dropped to an average of just 2.2 million bpd, according to Kpler. Combined crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait fell sharply from roughly 400 million barrels in February to about 200 million barrels in July.

After the IRGC announced the strait’s closure on March 2 following the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Iran, daily traffic collapsed to an average of five vessels. Despite temporary fluctuations during an April ceasefire, a US blockade of Iranian ports, and an interim agreement on June 17 that briefly raised the daily average to 20, traffic sank back to five per day after the US resumed its blockade on July 14. Between July 15 and August 23, traffic marked an almost 95 percent decrease from pre-war levels, with remaining vessels mostly operating under naval escort or with tracking systems disabled.

Countries heavily reliant on Gulf oil—such as Eritrea and Madagascar (each sourcing about 90 percent from the region), Pakistan (78 percent), Japan (77 percent), and Kenya (77 percent)—are facing rising prices and longer shipping waits. To adapt, global shipping flows have shifted toward the Red Sea and Southeast Asia. Singapore and Malaysia have emerged as hubs for redirected energy, with Russia’s fuel oil shipments to these ports rising 2.5 times month-on-month in July. Kuwait saw the steepest drop in daily port calls at 86 percent, followed by Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates down 69 percent, while Saudi Arabia saw a smaller 15 percent drop due to its network of pipelines and Red Sea ports.

Looking ahead, industry experts warn that the buffer provided by massive pre-war oil stocks has now been depleted. With multiple black swan events and growing vulnerabilities to drones and attacks involving entities like the Houthis, the next six months could see significantly higher volatility in global shipping and energy markets.