Six Months of Conflict: Evaluating the Strategic Gains and Losses for the US and Iran

Six months have passed since February 28, when the US and Israel initiated unexpected missile strikes on Iran, resulting in the deaths of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials in Tehran, alongside numerous children at a school in Minab, southern Iran. US President Donald Trump initially asserted the conflict would conclude within "four to five weeks." Since then, the war has expanded to multiple fronts, extending as far as the Caspian Sea, while sparking a global oil supply crisis as the US and Iran vie for dominance over the critical Strait of Hormuz, a passage responsible for more than one-fifth of global oil and natural gas shipments. The conflict has claimed an estimated 8,000 to 10,000 lives, left tens of thousands injured, and is actively reshaping the global order.

The objectives of the US were initially ambiguous, framed first as preemptive self-defense before evolving through a series of contradictory statements from President Donald Trump and senior US defense officials. Among the primary goals was dismantling Iran's nuclear program. Despite President Donald Trump declaring that the US had "obliterated" Iranian nuclear capabilities following its participation in Israel's 12-day war on Iran in June 2025, officials from both the US and Israel maintained in February that Tehran was weeks away from developing nuclear weapons. Repeated strikes have damaged facilities, though Tehran is believed to retain 440kg of highly enriched uranium. The Trump administration sought the surrender of this stockpile and a commitment to zero enrichment, a demand Iran rejected while exploring the transfer of the material to a third country and insisting on maintaining a civilian nuclear power program. A June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) stipulated that Iran would not pursue a nuclear weapon, but the agreement quickly unraveled due to vague wording. While US military veteran and professor Clark Summers argued that the US achieved its ends, ANU professor Alam Saleh contended that Washington failed, noting that Iran's nuclear program remains intact.

Regarding regime change, President Donald Trump championed the idea on day one of the conflict, calling on "Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment." Despite the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, political leadership largely persisted under the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Clark Summers noted the goal may have been ad hoc, while Alam Saleh emphasized that tactical assassinations do not equate to strategic success. On the matter of ending support for regional proxy groups—including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and other factions across Iraq and Syria—no termination has materialized, and the demand was omitted from the MoU. Hezbollah engaged in war with Israel, the Houthis launched a blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and Iran refused to negotiate unless the Lebanon front was included.

Concerning Iran's ballistic missile program and naval capabilities, Washington vowed to raze missile facilities and destroy the navy. President Donald Trump claimed that roughly 82 percent of missiles are gone and 158 naval vessels were hit, with CENTCOM continuing strikes on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centers. However, Iran continues to launch missiles, including a July long-range strike that killed three US soldiers in Jordan, and the demand was excluded from the July MoU. Furthermore, President Donald Trump's June claim that the US would seize Kharg island remains unrealized, as the US controls no Iranian territory.

The struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz saw Iran effectively close the crucial waterway, dropping shipping traffic from over 100 vessels daily to roughly five. Iran began striking unauthorized ships, prompting a continuing US naval blockade on Iranian ports. Despite President Donald Trump's demands, Iran has not reopened the waterway independently and recently negotiated a partial shipping route agreement with Oman. Economically, the war has severely impacted Iran, causing the collapse of the Iranian rial, soaring food prices, and a reduction in oil revenue by at least $6bn due to US blockades and sanctions, though Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated the country knows how to survive such pressure. Conversely, US consumers faced high petrol prices, contributing to widespread public opposition and potential political repercussions for Republicans in the November midterms, as noted by a July Associated Press poll.

Diplomatically, Iran faced regional backlash after targeting infrastructure in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, though its ties with China and Russia remained robust. Meanwhile, the US faced refusal from NATO allies, including Spain, Italy, Germany, and France, alongside Gulf allies, Pakistan, Turkiye, Japan, Australia, and South Korea, to join the conflict. Militarily, while Iran's army bases and ballistic missile stockpiles were degraded, it continues deploying Shahed drones and maintaining its enriched uranium stockpile, with an estimated 1,221 military personnel killed by April. The US lost 18 soldiers with over 750 wounded, and faced depleted Patriot missile stockpiles, leading to an August $22.9bn deal with Raytheon to increase Tomahawk production.

Ultimately, observers conclude there is no outright victor. Alam Saleh noted that neither side achieved its goals, highlighting that the US failed to translate military superiority into actual gains, leaving China and Russia to recalculate their strategies in future conflicts.