Guinea-Bissau Prepares for High-Stakes Referendum on Sweeping Presidential Powers

Voters in Guinea-Bissau are set to head to the polls on August 30 to decide on a new constitution that proposes significantly strengthening the presidency and reshaping the electoral system. This crucial vote arrives nine months after the military seized power and installed General Horta Inta-A Na Man as transitional president, and just over three months ahead of the presidential and legislative elections scheduled for December 6.

Proponents of the constitutional overhaul claim the changes will establish clearer lines of authority, ultimately helping to resolve years of persistent political instability and friction between state institutions. Conversely, detractors contend that the reforms concentrate an excessive amount of power within the office of the presidency and have voiced strong objections regarding the drafting process. The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), a prominent opposition faction in Guinea-Bissau, has formally rejected the referendum and urged citizens to boycott the vote. The outcome will decide whether the constitution crafted by the National Transitional Council (CNT) is enacted to guide the nation's transition back to a democratically elected government.

The momentum behind these constitutional changes traces back to the military coup on November 26, 2025, which occurred just three days after presidential and legislative elections and a mere day before the electoral commission was expected to release results. In the wake of the takeover, army chief of staff Horta assumed the role of transitional president. Subsequently, a transition charter established the National Transitional Council (CNT), granting it legislative authority during this interim period. The council formally approved the proposed constitutional text on January 13, 2026.

Guinea-Bissau is a compact Portuguese-speaking nation situated on the West African coast, bordered by Senegal to the north and Guinea to the east and south. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has frequently grappled with political crises and repeated coups. Under the current constitution, the nation functions under a semi-presidential system that divides executive power between a president and a prime minister. The newly proposed framework would radically transform this arrangement by bestowing far greater executive authority upon the president while diminishing the role of the prime minister.

Key modifications under the proposed charter include giving the president direct control over the appointment and dismissal of the prime minister and government officials. The president would also assume the chairmanship of the Council of Ministers and retain the unilateral authority to create or dissolve ministries. Furthermore, the parliament would shrink from 102 seats down to 65, and electoral constituencies would be reduced from 29 to 12. New criteria for presidential hopefuls would also be introduced, requiring candidates to have maintained permanent residency in Guinea-Bissau for the five years prior to the election, alongside a mandatory financial deposit of 50 million West African CFA francs, roughly equivalent to $90,000. Additionally, political parties backing presidential candidates would be mandated to have a minimum of 5,000 members, featuring at least 300 members in every region. A new Constitutional Court would likewise be established.

The debate surrounding these heightened presidential powers centers on the country's history of friction among presidents, prime ministers, and parliament. While supporters argue that centralizing authority can curb institutional gridlock and streamline decision-making, critics warn that it undermines legislative checks and balances. Concerns have also been raised that fewer constituencies could harm local political representation and that steep financial and membership thresholds will disadvantage smaller political movements. Beyond the structural changes, opposition groups and civil society organizations continue to protest that the draft was formulated by an unelected, military-led transition council rather than an active parliament.

While General Horta Inta-A Na Man leads the current interim government, the referendum is not a direct vote on his political future, as the transition framework prohibits both the transitional president and prime minister from contesting the upcoming elections. Instead, the core issue remains the expanse of power that will be wielded by the next elected leader. If approved, the winner of the December elections will govern with significantly enhanced powers. Ultimately, voters must decide whether to adopt a reformed constitutional framework before selecting the leaders who will govern under its rules, setting the stage for Guinea-Bissau's political future.