The Political and Economic Fallout of the US-Israel-Iran War on National Leaders

Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes across Tehran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders, the conflict has created severe political and economic repercussions for leaders in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran.

In the United States, President Donald Trump faces record-low approval ratings and a growing cost-of-living crisis. Petrol prices have risen by 50 percent since the war began on February 28, threatening the Republican Party ahead of the November midterm elections. University of Maryland professor Shibley Telhami noted that the war is increasingly viewed as a domestic pocketbook issue, with fewer than one in three Americans supporting the conflict and many believing Israel dragged the US into it. To pressure Tehran, President Trump recently imposed new sanctions dubbed "Economic D-Day," announced alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Despite the military strikes and sanctions, American author and diplomat Aaron David Miller observed that the Iranian government has survived, its nuclear material remains, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Furthermore, proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah retain capacity, making it a strategic success for Tehran while complicating future US foreign policy.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling politically. Israeli security analyst Ahron Bregman pointed out that Netanyahu is trailing in the polls after failing to secure decisive outcomes in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Former government adviser Daniel Levy added that the war has not provided the expected electoral momentum, leaving Israel no closer to neutralizing the existential threat posed by Iran.

Meanwhile, in Iran, the economy has suffered significantly, with the war costing upwards of $145bn by April and annual inflation reaching 66 percent. However, academic Shervin Malekzade noted that the Iranian public and political system remain resilient, driven by the core goal of preserving sovereignty. While internal differences persist between hardliners and moderates regarding future talks with the US, none of the belligerents are currently in a position to concede defeat.