How the US and Middle East Allies Outsmarted Iran's Oil Blockade Tactics

On the afternoon of July 25, the Greek-owned supertanker Kiku docked at Qatar’s Mesaieed oil export terminal, a massive, 30-berth port on the country’s west coast, 25 miles south of Doha. Four days later, loaded with crude oil, the Kiku passed through the Strait of Hormuz. The Very Large Crude Carrier maintained a steady pace of 13 knots across the Persian Gulf, near its top speed. Then, on July 31, shortly after 2 pm just off the coast of Dubai, the Kiku vanished after switching off its AIS transponder to evade monitoring services.

Suddenly, at 10 am on August 1, the Kiku’s signal reappeared on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. This maneuver is part of the oil industry’s latest strategy: “dark,” US-military-escorted nighttime transits across the strait to avoid Iranian drone attacks. Aided by the US Navy, Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari and Emirati oil companies have chartered oil tankers to turn their transponders off and shuttle oil out of the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, transferring their crude to waiting customer tankers before heading back.

According to the US Department of Energy, this clandestine operation has maintained oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at between 8 million and 9 million barrels per day. CNN observed more than a dozen ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, with tankers moving on to destinations including China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. While expensive and dangerous, this workaround buys vital time for the global energy market.

The increase in dark transits comes as the prolonged war has disrupted a fifth of the world’s oil supply for six months, depleting commercial stockpiles and pushing US emergency reserves to their lowest levels since the early 1980s. Over 80% of liquids transits through the strait over a recent two-week period took the Omani route or utilized dark transits, according to Kpler data. Satellite imagery from August 7 showed the Kiku and the Nave Electron conducting a ship-to-ship transfer off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

Alongside these escorted dark transits, Middle Eastern producers have increased exports by rerouting millions of barrels per day through alternative paths, such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Meanwhile, production has ramped up in Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the United States, while the US and China have heavily drawn down their emergency oil reserves to stabilize the market.

However, experts warn that this temporary fix cannot last indefinitely. With global inventories severely depleted and severe distress hitting refining hubs globally due to conflicts involving Iran and Russia, fuel prices for gas, diesel, and jet fuel have surged. President Donald Trump's administration has shifted toward a prolonged naval blockade to strangle Iran's economy, keeping oil and fuel prices elevated and consumers facing heightened inflation.