How Economic Pressure and Chokepoint Strategies are Shaping the Iran War

Since 2023, escalation and deterrence have served as the primary drivers of conflicts in the Middle East. Now, pressure appears to have taken root as the main factor. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi implicitly acknowledged as much after meeting Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, stating that the door to diplomacy remained open provided the US government recognized that “pressure doesn’t work”.

This dynamic highlights a classic case of evaluating actors by their actions rather than their rhetoric. The US government launched a significant coercive initiative through Operation Economic Outcast, which notably targets China’s teapot refineries relying on Iranian oil. The combined impact of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy embargo has severely disrupted exports from the Arabian Gulf.

Intelligence data from Kpler indicates that daily crossings through the strait have plunged from an average of 88 prior to the Iran war to just 16. Regional oil exports have plummeted from roughly 20 million barrels per day down to 3.6 million. Essential commodities ranging from helium used in data centre cooling to fertilizers and aluminum have also faced severe logistical disruptions.

Observers suggest that Mr Araghchi’s remarks regarding pressure were aimed as much at domestic hardliners in Iran as at Washington. While high petrol prices at the pump carry political weight in the United States, Tehran is feeling its own severe economic pinch, evident in long queues at petrol stations and sluggish trade within the central bazaar. Fereydun Jasemi, regional director at the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company, noted that petrol sales in Tehran reached a yearly peak ahead of expectations surrounding remarks by US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent regarding "D-Day".

The prolonged stalemate carries wider geopolitical consequences. When speaking with French Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment Nicolas Forissier, discussions highlighted European efforts to help Gulf countries diversify export corridors away from vulnerable maritime chokepoints. Economists studying Iranian prospects view Tehran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as a diminishing asset over time.

Economist Paktinat Hamid noted that regional plans to develop pipelines and land corridors could reduce Iran's strategic advantage in controlling Hormuz by half within three years. Saudi Arabia's reliance on the corridor is projected to drop from 70 percent to 15 percent, while Iraq's dependence would fall from 100 percent to 30 percent. This reality explains why officials like Mr Araghchi continue diplomatic engagement with Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar as intermediaries to the US.

Concurrently, a parallel squeeze is unfolding at the Bab Al Mandeb strait. Reports reveal that the Houthis in Yemen are escalating attacks on Saudi oil tankers while building a network of influence across the Horn of Africa. The transfer of drone technology and weaponry into Sudan and Somalia—where the Sudanese Armed Forces and Al Shabab operate—risks further destabilizing the region and creating a dual chokehold across the Red Sea that threatens the global economy.

This Houthi control over major trade routes grants the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a secondary point of leverage over basic commodities and manufactured goods alike. Although the US currently lacks an active counter-pressure mechanism in the Red Sea, European nations remain engaged through the Aspides coalition to safeguard cargo transit.

Ultimately, the strategy of exercising strict control by force faces serious limitations as regional neighbors and international markets adapt. Furthermore, the economic disruption experienced by the US remains relatively low compared to the severe domestic pain felt by Iran and its allies, suggesting that a true standstill or diplomatic settlement remains the ultimate substitute for ongoing hostilities.