Strait of Hormuz Standoff: Is Donald Trump Pivoting to a 'No War, No Peace' Strategy With Iran?

Following the first strikes in the US-Iran war for a month, United States President Donald Trump appeared to signal a new phase in the conflict, which marked its first six months. "We’re going to hit them hard … there will be a response," Trump told reporters, shortly after Iran launched missile attacks on US military sites in Jordan in response to strikes on Larak Island the previous night. US news outlet Axios reported Washington may be switching to a new “no war, no peace” strategy aimed at hitting Iran periodically without engaging in sustained conflict.

The US struck military targets on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, close to Bandar Abbas, hitting two Iranian rocket launchers that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was allegedly preparing to use for scattering sea mines. Iranian media reported three deaths, and Iran subsequently launched missiles at two airbases hosting US military personnel and assets in Jordan. Jordan reported intercepting eight missiles, prompting Trump to pledge a heavy response.

At a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated his forces would cease fire if the US did the same and fulfilled commitments under an interim deal signed in June. That deal has since expired and largely collapsed over vague wording. Monday's exchange marked the first direct attacks in over a month, though Trump maintained that the renewed fighting did not necessarily signal a return to full-scale war.

The Trump administration's approach has evolved from a 40-day military campaign to ceasefires, a memorandum of understanding (MoU) that quickly collapsed, and a recent shift toward economic pressure led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. While Bessent announced global financial targets and secondary sanctions to curb Iranian oil revenue, Iran’s Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati dismissed claims of a collapsing economy.

Observers note that the situation resembles an unstable middle ground, with Axios reporting a potential strategy of periodic attacks to keep oil tankers moving safely through the Gulf. However, analysts like Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute warn that periodic bombing equates to a "forever war." Additional concerns include potential munition shortages, declining domestic approval ratings for Trump as petrol prices rise, and differing priorities between the US and Israel regarding nuclear threats and regional exit strategies.