UN Warns of Intensifying El Nino and Extreme Weather Expected to Last Into 2027

The El Nino weather phenomenon is set to gather pace, with extreme conditions expected to last into 2027, the World Meteorological Organisation said on Thursday. The UN weather agency stated that its forecast indicates a near 100 per cent chance that El Nino will persist until February, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures.

A powerful El Nino can affect worldwide rainfall and temperature patterns significantly, and fuel extreme weather, such as typhoons and tropical cyclones.

“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” said UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters and those waters are heating up. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”

The WMO noted that this was the first time its El Nino update had been “so unequivocal”, reflecting the strong agreement within WMO’s extensive network. El Nino is a periodic warming of sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last for up to 12 months, often causing intense rain and droughts across Latin America.

This year's phenomenon has already hit soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America's Dry Corridor. It is set to peak towards the end of this year, the WMO said in a statement. In Indonesia, toxic haze from El Nino-fuelled wildfires has affected people across South-East Asia, including in neighbouring Malaysia and the Philippines.

Celeste Saulo, WMO secretary general, stated that the agency was stepping up early warnings in preparation. “WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said. “We have no time to lose.”

Last month, Copernicus, the European Union’s climate-change agency, reported that sea-surface temperatures around the world reached the highest level on record in July, partly because of the El Nino effect.