Navigating the Gulf's Geopolitical Crisis: Resilience, Strategy, and Co-operation in Uncertain Times

There are moments in history when geography becomes destiny, and the Gulf is currently living through one of them. Over the past six months, the UAE, the wider Gulf, the Middle East, and the world have found themselves caught in the consequences of a conflict that began with US and Israeli military action over Iran’s growing nuclear threat and has since evolved into a far wider strategic confrontation. What started as a military crisis has become an economic and geopolitical one, reaching into energy markets, shipping lanes, supply chains, diplomacy, and calculations of national security. As the latest exchanges between Washington and Tehran demonstrate, the possibility of further escalation remains real.

Few places have been more exposed to these consequences than the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic pressure point. Disruption there has reverberated through energy markets and global trade, while attacks on commercial vessels have underscored how quickly a regional confrontation can threaten the arteries of the international economy. Gulf states have consequently been forced to think not only about deterrence and defence, but about the resilience of ports, pipelines, energy systems, food supplies, logistics networks, and global connectivity.

The UAE has found itself at the intersection of these pressures as simultaneously a Gulf state, a major global trading hub, a diplomatic actor, and a bridge between regions and economies. Its exposure to the turbulence is multidimensional, with consequences felt in shipping, investment, aviation, commodity prices, business confidence, and the strategic choices confronting governments far beyond the Middle East.

This is why the third edition of the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi on Monday and Tuesday is timely. Convened under the theme “Gulf at Crossroads: Conflict, Consequences and Course Correction,” the forum—co-organised by the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy—seeks to make sense of what has happened, what is happening now, and what could and should happen next.

The Gulf can no longer be understood principally through the traditional lenses of oil, military alliances, and regional rivalries. It has become a crossroads where geopolitics, geoeconomics, and geotechnology converge. Chief officer Ankit Goyal recalls the deafening impact on his cargo ship, the Manali, when missiles and drone attacks struck nearby ships when the Iran war erupted. The vessel was carrying 24 sailors from India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. More than 20,000 seafarers were stranded on commercial ships when the Iran-US war began, with maritime organisations pleading for the safety of seafarers. According to UN International Maritime Organisation figures, there have been 17 seafarer deaths in 56 attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The Hili Forum arrives at a moment when the UAE and the region challenge conventional assumptions, further their resilience, and plan a reset in the shadow of the war. Speakers from dozens of countries—including policymakers, diplomats, academics, business leaders, and strategic thinkers—will think beyond the crisis. Discussions will focus on strengthening crisis management capabilities, making critical maritime and economic corridors more resilient, transforming competition and co-operation through technology, changing regional defence mechanisms and security architecture, recasting future relations between Gulf Co-operation Council countries and Iran, and exercising greater agency as middle powers.

With its history of exchange and connection across cultures, Hili offers a powerful metaphor for the present moment. In an age when conflict travels rapidly across borders through drones, markets, misinformation, cyber networks, and disrupted supply chains, dialogue and co-operation must also transcend borders. As noted by Nickolay Mladenov and Dr Sultan Al Nuaimi—directors general, respectively, of the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy and the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research—there is an urgent need for strategic foresight, sober conversation, and practical co-operation to prepare for whatever comes next.