Unresolved Tensions: How Ethiopia’s Tigray Regrouped After the Pretoria Deal

Nearly four years after the signing of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which was intended to end years of devastating conflict in Ethiopia, the underlying political, territorial, and security disputes remain largely unresolved. While the large-scale war was halted, the period since 2024 has witnessed the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) repositioning itself politically and structurally, maintaining military leverage, and forging new alliances.

The historic agreement stipulated a permanent cessation of hostilities, the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) of Tigrayan forces, and a strict ban on military conscription and mobilisation under Article 7. Although heavy weapons were initially handed over, recent years have seen reports of renewed recruitment and internal restructuring. Inside Tigray, political shifts have also reshaped the leadership. Following internal struggles, Getachew Reda was replaced as head of the interim administration in 2025 by Lieutenant General Tadesse Werede, and by May 2026, the Tigray regional council reinstated Debretsion Gebremichael as president, cementing the influence of his faction.

By early 2026, political friction translated back into direct military clashes. Tigray Defence Forces-aligned troops crossed the Tekeze River into the disputed Tselemt district, and fighters later seized control of Alamata and Korem after a federal command post withdrew. Additional fighting erupted near the Sudanese border in western Tigray, with both the federal government and the TPLF assigning blame to each other for the escalation.

Beyond regional borders, the post-Pretoria landscape has seen surprising alignments. Reports have emerged regarding contacts between the TPLF and Eritrean officials, despite their historical hostilities and Eritrea's previous alignment with Ethiopia's federal government. Furthermore, a loose coalition known as Tsimdo has emerged, featuring cooperation between the TPLF, Fano, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and other armed groups opposed to the federal government. Fano leader Zemene Kassie has acknowledged this coalition, highlighting how former adversaries are willing to set aside differences to increase pressure on Addis Ababa.

Despite these strategic realignments among political and armed actors, the human cost of the unfinished peace process remains severe. Approximately 1.9 million people remain displaced, many unable to return to contested territories such as Welkait, Tsegede, Humera, and Raya. While the Pretoria agreement successfully stopped full-scale warfare, the enduring struggle for power, territory, and security continues to cast uncertainty over the region's future.