Fitch Affirms Qatar's AA Credit Rating and Projects LNG Exports to Recover by Late Next Year

Global agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar's credit rating at “AA”, citing its robust economy, and projects that the nation's liquefied natural gas exports will rebound to pre-war levels by the second half of next year. Additionally, the agency removed the Gulf nation from “Rating Watch Negative” due to decreasing risks surrounding its liquefied natural gas units since March, while maintaining a “negative” outlook as LNG exports remain disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“The AA rating reflects gross domestic product per capita among the world's highest, large sovereign assets, our expectation that additional gas production will further strengthen public finances,” Fitch stated on Saturday. Shell previously noted that Qatar LNG repairs could potentially take until Q1 2027.

An AA rating represents the third-highest tier on Fitch's rating scale, sitting two notches below the top prime grade, which helps facilitate easier access to capital markets and funding when borrowing is necessary. The removal from the Rating Watch Negative alert follows diminishing risks to LNG facilities after attacks by Iran on Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG refinery, in March.

“While the geographic concentration and high complexity of Qatar's LNG facilities is a vulnerability, the risks of further severe damage have reduced since March and the impact of the war on the credit profile will take longer to discern,” Fitch explained. Iranian missile strikes in March caused destruction to portions of the Ras Laffan industrial complex, which supplies one-fifth of the world's super-chilled fuel, damaging Trains 4 and 6 and cutting 12.8 million tonnes a year (mtpa)—about 17 per cent of Qatar's LNG exports—from the market. Consequently, QatarEnergy declared long-term force majeure on contracts with buyers in China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. Chief executive Saad Al Kaabi estimated annual lost revenue at $20 billion and projected that repairs would take three to five years.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled over 20 per cent of the global supply of crude oil and LNG before the conflict began, severely restricted Qatar's export capabilities.

LNG Export Forecast

Nevertheless, exports are anticipated to recover to pre-war levels in the second half of next year. “We assume that some form of deal will enable conditions conducive to the resumption of exports through the strait in the first quarter of next year, after which it will take about six months to reach the pre-war level minus the 17 per cent of capacity damaged by the Iranian attack on Ras Laffan,” Fitch reported.

States across the Gulf and Middle East continue evaluating conditions between the US and Iran as the conflict persists following its February 28 start. Both nations exchanged new strikes recently, with the US targeting sites near the Strait of Hormuz while Tehran deployed missiles and drones against Jordan and Kuwait, leaving regional economies under ongoing strain.

Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East to 0.7 per cent—a 1.2 percentage point downward revision from April—driven by disruptions to regional energy exports stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, growth is expected to rebound to 6.5 per cent in 2027, marking an upward adjustment of 1.9 percentage points from previous assessments. The International Monetary Fund indicated that Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, the three oil producers most severely impacted by these disruptions, face sharp economic contractions this year prior to experiencing “double-digit expansions” next year.