German Voters Go to the Polls as Far-Right AfD Eyes Historic State Victory in Saxony-Anhalt

Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt are heading to closely watched polls on Sunday in an election that could see the Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the first far-right party to take power at a state level since World War II.

Recent surveys place the AfD at 40 percent, leading ahead of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) at 23 percent. The AfD has maintained a comfortable lead in the polls for months and holds a potential chance at securing an absolute majority if several smaller parties fail to clear the 5 percent threshold required to enter the German parliament. However, the final results remain uncertain, and a CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is considered the most likely outcome if the AfD falls short of a majority. Depending on which parties surpass the 5 percent minimum, weeks of coalition talks could follow the vote.

Ulrich Siegmund, the top candidate for the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt and a former member of the CDU, predicted an absolute majority that could pave the way for the anti-establishment party to achieve national victory in 2029. Recognized as “Germany’s most dangerous man” by the magazine Der Spiegel, Siegmund told the tabloid Bild, “It was the others who erected the firewalls. If no one wants to work with us, then we’ll just have to do it alone.” Achieving an absolute majority would allow the AfD to bypass mainstream parties’ noncooperation firewall policy, a tactic the party has already bypassed at the local level as it looks toward its broader ambition of securing national power in the 2029 federal elections.

Meanwhile, the CDU faces pressure under the leadership of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Speaking at a local campaign rally in Lower Saxony a week before the election, Merz urged fellow politicians to engage more effectively with the AfD, stating, “We must address the issues at hand. We must also address our choice of words.” His comments referenced a prior statement by Martin Reichardt, the AfD’s state leader in Saxony-Anhalt, who told the party’s youth organization that Germany had become “a lazy, anti-social bum reeking of dope.”

In the capital of Saxony-Anhalt, thousands of demonstrators gathered for a festival of democracy in support of an open society based on solidarity. Rally organizers estimated that between 15,000 and 20,000 people attended the demonstration held one day before the crucial election. Initial results are expected around 16:00 GMT on Sunday.