Far-right AfD's Historic Victory in German State Election Sparks Alarm Across Europe

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to victory in a German state election on Sunday, according to exit polls, placing a far-right party within reach of power for the first time since the Second World War and igniting widespread concern across Europe.

The anti-migrant party achieved its best-ever result in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt amid rising public frustration with Germany's political establishment. More than doubling its previous support, the AfD finished ahead of the long-governing Christian Democratic Union. Although falling slightly short of an overall majority, the AfD captured 44 per cent of the vote, dealing a significant blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz. This leaves the AfD just three seats shy of an outright majority in the state legislature, adding to its status as Germany's most popular party at the national level. The party is aiming to secure a foothold to advance its platform, which features strict restrictions on immigration, the restoration of ties with Russia, reduced support for Ukraine, and withdrawal from the euro.

Government ministers in France expressed deep concern on Monday over the election outcome. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told RTL radio that the result sends a very worrying signal and highlights a major challenge posed by a global populist wave that must be resisted. His remarks echoed statements made late Sunday by France's European Affairs Minister Benjamin Haddad, who wrote on X that the far-right's success in the regional vote is a grave moment for Europe, emphasizing that while public anger and fears must be addressed with humility, nationalism and xenophobia are never the right answer.

In Poland, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski called the result a disturbing signal and a very worrying sign during an interview with Radio Vox FM. Meanwhile, Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Forza Italia leader Antonio Tajani labeled the outcome very bad news, describing the AfD as antithetical to liberal and western values and calling for preventive measures against any populist and fanatical drift in Europe. Conversely, Matteo Salvini, Italy's co-deputy prime minister and leader of the League Party, embraced the result on social media, asserting that it represents democracy rather than fear or danger.

Far-right figures across Europe welcomed the election as a mandate for change, while US President Donald Trump shared a screenshot of the result without comment on Truth Social. Sven Schulze, the CDU premier of Saxony-Anhalt, acknowledged that voters had sent a clear signal.

Throughout the campaign, the AfD capitalized on growing disillusionment with established parties, which it describes as out of touch, while promoting a platform of hardline policies and a nostalgic vision for safer streets and national pride. The party called for a halt to immigration, an end to climate change mitigation efforts, and the renewal of relations with Russia. Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD's lead candidate, told supporters in Magdeburg that this serves as the foundation for the first AfD-led government in Germany, starting in Saxony-Anhalt and spreading nationwide. Mr. Siegmund expressed gratitude to Elon Musk for his support and perspective after the X owner congratulated AfD co-founder Alice Weidel with a German-language post of well done. Ms. Weidel stated that the party would reach out to potential partners, including disgruntled CDU politicians, to form a government, though securing a coalition could prove challenging as rival parties have ruled out cooperating with the AfD due to Germany's Nazi history.

The AfD has rejected accusations of extremism as scaremongering. Other parties entering parliament include the CDU with 9.2 per cent, the Greens with 8.9 per cent, and the anti-capitalist Left party with 8.6 per cent. Additionally, BSW, a breakaway party formed by former Left leader Sahra Wagenknecht, cleared the 5 per cent threshold to win seats.

Saxony-Anhalt, home to roughly two million people and possessing the lowest GDP per capita among Germany's 16 states, has experienced a sharp population decline since reunification, with resident numbers dropping by more than a quarter between 1990 and 2024. During campaign events, Mr. Siegmund drew thousands of supporters and stated that if an immediate majority cannot be formed, the AfD will wait out any subsequent political chaos, predicting further gains in future elections.

Mr. Merz has previously warned that the AfD would lead Germany into the abyss, and business leaders have cautioned that the rise of the party could deter investment. Meanwhile, domestic counter-intelligence has placed elements of the AfD under increased surveillance, categorizing them as a threat to democratic institutions.