Gaza Peace Plan Impasse Threatens Two-State Solution, Warns Nickolay Mladenov

If the comprehensive peace plan for Gaza is not advanced into its implementation phase, the two-state solution will become practically impossible, warned Nickolay Mladenov, the high representative of Gaza's Board of Peace, on Monday.

Speaking at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi during a panel discussion moderated by The National, Mr Mladenov noted that while some progress has been achieved to improve the daily lives of over two million Palestinians living in dire conditions, major obstacles persist. These hurdles include ongoing restrictions imposed by Israel on the entry of humanitarian assistance and construction materials.

“If Gaza continues the way it is now or does not move into implementing the road map and the proposal we have under the comprehensive plan, the two-state solution will become practically impossible,” Mr Mladenov warned. He added that with half of Gaza under the control of the Israeli army and less than half controlled by Hamas, alongside developments in the West Bank, no credible pathway currently exists for a political resolution.

He emphasized that the only way to return to political discussions is through transitional governance, the decommissioning of weapons, and a withdrawal in Gaza. Without changes to the situation in the territory, he cautioned that it would quickly lead to another generation growing up radicalized and angry, echoing the costs seen during the October 7 attacks in 2023 led by Hamas, which resulted in around 1,200 deaths.

Subsequent military actions by Israel resulted in extensive casualties, the displacement of nearly the entire population, and widespread destruction across the Gaza Strip. Despite a ceasefire agreement reached last October, ongoing restrictions continue to block reconstruction work, limit humanitarian aid, and prevent the entry of a commission of Palestinian technocrats mandated under the Gaza peace plan to manage daily affairs.

Despite these complications, Mr Mladenov pointed to some areas of progress, notably the establishment of an International Stabilisation Force (ISF) designed to train the Palestinian police force in Gaza and oversee the decommissioning of Hamas weapons. Discussions are ongoing with additional countries expected to join the ISF in the coming weeks, and Mr Mladenov confirmed that Hamas agreed to surrender its heavy weapons in July. However, friction remains with Israel, which has previously rejected the peace plan ahead of upcoming national elections, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasizing national security in his campaign.

While humanitarian aid entry has risen since the ceasefire, it still fails to fully meet the population's needs, and reconstruction remains a distant objective. Mr Mladenov expressed hope for positive developments in the coming weeks, stressing that a solution must be reached soon to prevent residents from facing another winter under current conditions.