Iraq Prepares for Sovereignty and Security Test as US-Led Coalition Exit Looms

The United States-led international military coalition is set to conclude its mission in Iraq by the end of this month, Iraqi armed forces have officially confirmed to state media. Lieutenant General Abdul Amir al-Shammari, director of the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, announced that September 30 marks the final date for the coalition forces' mission and the transition into a new chapter of bilateral relations. This timeline was previously confirmed by Qasim al-Araji, security adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.

Under a 2024 agreement forged between Baghdad and Washington, the ongoing withdrawal includes dismantling US air defence systems stationed in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq. These platforms previously played a vital role in intercepting incoming Iranian ballistic missiles and drones amid the wider US-Israel war on Iran. US military involvement in Iraq began with the 2003 invasion, which triggered a severe civil war resulting in the deaths of approximately 200,000 civilians. Following an initial withdrawal in 2011, American forces returned in 2015 to spearhead the international coalition against the ISIL (ISIS) group.

“September 30 will be the fixed and final date for ending the military mission of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS in Iraq and completing the departure of its forces,” stated the prime minister’s office, adding that October 1 will signify a new era for the Iraqi state free of foreign military presence.

Despite the impending exit, domestic challenges remain acute. Iyad al-Anbar, a political science professor at the University of Baghdad, noted that much of the withdrawal is a formality since remaining US troops are primarily concentrated at the Harir base in Erbil, having already vacated positions in Camp Victory and the Green Zone near the US embassy. Analysts point out that Prime Minister al-Zaidi faces immense pressure to bring all weapons under strict state control, having set a firm deadline for nonstate armed groups—such as Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Hezbollah—to disarm.

Meanwhile, the US is undergoing a strategic pivot under President Donald Trump rather than cutting ties entirely. Former US diplomat Marlin Hardinger explained that Washington will maintain targeted counterterrorism and intelligence efforts around the US embassy and consulate, while focusing more heavily on economic development to benefit Iraqis.

However, regional security experts warn of potential vulnerabilities. Hassan al-Barari, an international relations professor at the University of Jordan, cautioned that without American Patriot missile batteries and direct understandings with Tehran, northern Iraq and Erbil could face significant security gaps against external threats if Baghdad fails to independently manage its airspace and internal security.