Germany's Far-Right AfD Surge in Saxony-Anhalt Can Still Be Defeated, Experts Argue

Ulrich Siegmund, top candidate in the Saxony-Anhalt state election for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, addresses a campaign event in Magdeburg, eastern Germany, on September 5, 2026 [AFP]. The victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the elections of the East German state Saxony-Anhalt marks a dramatic turning point for Germany. Securing 44 percent of the vote and 39 seats in the 83-seat local legislature, the party fell just short of a majority. However, the small populist BSW party has signaled it might enable an AfD head of government in the state, potentially granting executive power to an extreme-right party in a German state for the first time since World War 2.

This electoral outcome has deeply shaken Germany, culminating a decade-long trajectory that transformed the AfD from a marginal protest movement into a major political force. While mainstream German parties face a severe setback, an opportunity remains to reverse this dangerous trend if current leaders take decisive action. Addressing the AfD's rise requires examining voter attitudes and socioeconomic conditions. Surveys conducted by the think tank d|part indicate that residents in Saxony-Anhalt feel job prospects, education, health care, and social environments are deteriorating at rates far above the national average. The disconnect between public demand for improved economic and social services and governmental delivery has fueled the anger successfully exploited by the AfD.

Although the AfD's proposed policies threaten to worsen these socioeconomic challenges, many disillusioned voters see no alternative due to eroded trust in ruling parties. Research shows that approximately three-quarters of AfD voters view no other political option as viable, exhibiting firm commitment to the party. While a segment of these voters aligns with the extreme-right and racist positions of the AfD—a shift from earlier years when votes were cast despite these platforms—about a quarter of current supporters remain open to other parties. This swing demographic does not necessarily view the AfD as superior on economic or cost-of-living issues and should become the immediate focus for mainstream parties ahead of upcoming elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

Over the longer term, mainstream political strategies require a major overhaul. Nationwide discontent with the status quo is high, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz currently faces the lowest approval rating for any German government head since polling began, standing at 13 percent. Despite widespread dissatisfaction, the German public continues to value strong state action and trusts institutions to improve living conditions across economic, job, social, educational, and cultural sectors. Traditional parties, including Christian- and Social-Democrats, have erred by allowing the AfD to dictate the political agenda, mistakenly prioritizing immigration to win back voters. With 80 percent of the public prioritizing economic policy over immigration, mainstream parties must stop accommodating the AfD and instead offer a credible, actionable plan to enhance everyday life for ordinary citizens.

Empowering local authorities and restoring confidence in governance at all levels are essential steps to curb the AfD's momentum. As 20th-century history demonstrated during periods of economic upheaval, underestimating a rising extreme-right movement carries devastating consequences that Europe cannot afford to repeat.