US Air-Defence Withdrawal from Iraq Threatens Wider Regional Security Gap

Countries neighbouring Iraq are reassessing their security calculations as the upcoming withdrawal of US-led coalition air-defence systems removes an important defensive layer along a route repeatedly utilized by Iranian missiles and drones.

The September 30 deadline was agreed on between Baghdad and Washington in 2024 to transform the coalition mission from combat and advisory roles to bilateral security co-operation. American detection and interception capabilities, especially in the Kurdistan region, have become critical to security calculations in Jordan, Syria, and to some extent Israel.

However, Qasim Al Araji, security adviser to the Iraqi Prime Minister, confirmed that the withdrawal will include all US-led coalition air-defence systems, including those deployed in the Kurdistan Region. A regional security official noted that nations in the area are already intensifying efforts to find alternatives.

The systems around Erbil, including Patriot and C-Ram capabilities, have played a vital role in protecting coalition facilities. Strategic analyst Maan Al Jubouri described the consequences as potentially direct and significant, warning that Iraqi airspace will be greatly affected, making it easier for neighbouring states or armed groups to breach it.

As Iraq's skies have increasingly served as a corridor for attacks involving Iran, the US, and Israel, the disappearance of these air-defence assets transforms into a broader regional issue. For Jordan, which faces its own threats from Iranian drones, the loss of detection and interception capabilities further east is particularly concerning.

Meanwhile, Iraqi Defence Ministry spokesman Maj Gen Yahya Rasool stated that the government is working to build an integrated national air-defence system. Prime Minister Ali Al Zaidi has ordered that the development timeline be reduced from six years to three years.

Despite these efforts, Mr Al Jubouri remains doubtful that three years will be sufficient to eliminate vulnerabilities, noting that building effective air-defence architecture requires extensive expertise, training, and years of integration.