Rebuilding Trust: The Gulf Confronts a New Geopolitical Reality at the Hili Forum

A complicated Gulf is rapidly emerging, according to the consensus on the opening day of the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi. Diplomats gathered at the annual strategic dialogue—jointly organised by the Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research and the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy—to tackle how regional countries will handle this growing complexity amid an Iran war that has entered its seventh month.

The ongoing conflict has exposed the limits of the long-held assumption that security and prosperity in the Gulf could be managed solely through American security alliances and regional co-operation. Iran’s attacks on all six Gulf countries have cost lives, damaged critical infrastructure, and disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's move to establish a restricted zone around the waterway with threatened sanctions has further underscored the extreme vulnerability of this vital energy chokepoint, making the search for alternatives an urgent strategic priority.

Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, noted at the forum that the region is being fundamentally reshaped into a more complex and uncertain environment. In response, the UAE has pursued strategic autonomy, which Dr Gargash explained entails retaining the capacity to keep the economy growing, people safe, and decisions independent. While not a rejection of partnerships, this approach recognizes that traditional alliances cannot substitute for strategic autonomy.

Meanwhile, Majed Al Ansari, an adviser to Qatar’s prime minister and foreign ministry spokesman, warned that the biggest threat is the normalization of a state of "no war, no peace." He suggested that reinstating deterrence is paramount and offered a practical starting point of more open borders to deepen supply chain co-operation and withstand future disruptions.

Ultimately, speakers in Abu Dhabi agreed that fluidity defines the current moment, requiring continuous dialogue and a massive rebuilding of trust. Dr Gargash emphasized that while geography leaves no alternative to eventually restoring a functional relationship with Iran, overcoming the damage caused by thousands of missiles and drones will be a monumental mountain to climb.