US Military and Intelligence Officials Discuss Reducing Middle East Footprint Amid Post-9/11 Strategy Shifts

Military and intelligence officials are holding quiet discussions about reducing personnel and facilities stationed in the Middle East if the Trump administration successfully ends the conflict with Iran, according to six sources. Such cuts would mark another major pivot in how the US national security apparatus approaches a region that multiple presidents have attempted to exit. Following the September 11, 2001, attacks, the US significantly expanded its permanent military and intelligence infrastructure across countries including Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, Yemen, and Libya.

However, recent fighting with Iran has exposed deep vulnerabilities in American infrastructure in the Middle East. Many facilities have become targets of repeated Iranian attacks in a war that has resulted in the deaths of 18 American service members. Officials involved in these informal talks noted they are attempting to anticipate what might be acceptable to a president who has not articulated a clear postwar strategy and who has historically favored reducing overseas US forces.

Despite these discussions, approximately 50,000 troops and major military assets—including two aircraft carriers and more than a dozen guided-missile destroyers—remain in the Middle East. CIA officers evacuated during the height of the fighting are returning to the region, and the US military is evaluating ways to harden defenses for remaining troops, such as moving some installations underground to protect against missile and drone attacks.

While the Pentagon has previously debated moving bases underground, the issue gained urgency after early engagements in the war exposed severe vulnerabilities. Pentagon officials have developed multiple potential courses of action to alter the US force structure in the region as soon as next year, though abandoning strategic locations while the conflict continues is not currently planned. The Office of the Secretary of Defense directed questions to US Central Command, which did not respond prior to publication, while the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The current discussions occur against the backdrop of 25 years of military intervention since September 11, characterized by repeated cycles of promises to draw down forces. The US military significantly increased its regional footprint prior to 9/11 and expanded it further to support operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, and subsequent counterterrorism campaigns. Although troop numbers fluctuated over the decades following drawdowns announced by Presidents Barack Obama and subsequent administrations, the persistent threat from Iran and its proxy groups has continued to draw the US back into regional crises.

Ongoing hostilities persist as Iran continues targeting US bases and forces, launching recent attacks in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. Significant damage has been reported, including the destruction of the CIA’s outpost in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, alongside strikes on American installations in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Consequently, defense officials are weighing whether certain sensitive operations for the CIA and elite special operations commands could be executed via rotational deployments from the United States rather than permanent basing. Additionally, cost considerations may lead the government to forgo rebuilding severely damaged assets, pending assessments of future regional posture.