Why the Gulf Conflict Cannot End in Decisive Victory and Requires Compromise

Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on September 2, 2026 [Stringer/Reuters]. The current Gulf war does not resemble traditional conflicts. Wars typically conclude in one of two ways: either a decisive victory followed by surrender and the victor's terms, as seen in the first and second world wars, or a settlement based on mutual exhaustion without a clear victor, much like the eight-year Iran-Iraq war where neither Iran nor Iraq achieved their primary objectives.

Reflecting on modern American military engagements, the United States has largely failed to secure its stated objectives. Memorable withdrawals from Saigon and Kabul airport highlight how Vietnam and Afghanistan ended not in conventional triumph, but in chaotic retreats and political settlements favoring local forces. Similarly, the US invasion of Iraq ultimately benefited Tehran, handing regional influence over to Iran. Yet, the current US-Israeli conflict with Iran defies both historical patterns.

Beginning last year with a brief two-week campaign aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme, the war abruptly paused before unexpectedly restarting. Despite relentless bombardment from US warships and Israeli aircraft, the conflict lapsed into intermittent exchanges of strikes rather than a definitive resolution. While the United States maintains severe economic sanctions and a strict blockade, Iran's geographical advantages—including extensive borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iraq, alongside a coastline on the Caspian Sea shared with Russia—render these restrictions far less crippling than past blockades on Iraq.

Ultimately, none of the original US-Israeli objectives—eliminating the nuclear programme, curbing missile ranges, or overthrowing the regime—have been achieved. Instead, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central crisis threatening global oil prices and economic stability. Resolving this will require intensified international mediation involving Europe, China, Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar to forge a compromise that protects regional sovereignty and prevents a worldwide financial crisis.

The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.