Lula's Final Campaign: Inside the Brazilian President's Bid for an Unprecedented Fourth Term

Sao Bernardo do Campo, Brazil – By mid-morning, the bright August sun emerged from the clouds and illuminated the May 1 Stadium in the industrial city of Sao Bernardo do Campo, on the outskirts of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It was here, in 1979, that a bearded union leader from Brazil’s impoverished northeast stood on top of a borrowed bar table to address 60,000 striking metalworkers. The event came to symbolise a democratic awakening in defiance of the country’s military dictatorship. Forty-seven years later – and after seven presidential bids, a spell in prison and three terms in the presidency – Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva returned to the spot where his political career began. Only this time, he was the president, and launching a campaign to seek an unprecedented fourth term in the country's top political office.

On October 4, Brazilians will head to the polls to vote for their next leader. If no candidate receives an outright majority, the race will proceed to a run-off. At age 80, this will likely be Lula's last dance. In a seeming wink to that fact, Lula walked onto the stadium's stage to the song Sirius, famous as the pregame anthem for the Chicago Bulls' last championship season. If he wins, he will surpass his own record as the oldest elected president in Brazilian history.

Facing an ascendant right wing, Brazilian society has changed significantly since Lula’s days on the picket line. A conservative wave has swept over South America, with right-wing presidential candidates winning elections in Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru over the last 12 months. A factor in that wave has been the administration of United States President Donald Trump, which has offered backing to right-wing leaders across the Western Hemisphere. In June, Trump shared an article on social media describing Brazil’s upcoming presidential vote as the “next major test” in his project of “making the Americas great again”.

However, analysts in Brazil warn that this right-wing sweep has more to do with anti-incumbency and domestic factors rather than any region-wide ideological shift. Amid anger over crime and economic struggles, electorates across South America have displayed a hunger for change, said Leonardo Paz, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), an educational institute. “The left was in government in these countries, so of course the change they chose came from the right,” Paz added, pointing to Argentina where libertarian Javier Milei rose to power in 2023 due to a horrible inflation crisis.

Still, Lula is hoping to upset expectations for left-wing leaders in the region. Under Lula, Brazil has posted promising economic results, with GDP growth averaging just under 3 percent and the unemployment rate dropping to 5.1 percent by the end of 2025. However, climbing debt, high interest rates and increasing cost of living have created widespread malaise among citizens dealing with affordability issues.

Heading into October's election, Lula faces his greatest challenge from a 45-year-old first-term senator, Flavio Bolsonaro, who earned his party's nomination after getting the endorsement of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. While Lula draws on his long history as a labour leader to project experience against the Bolsonaro family, public security remains his biggest challenge, with 33 percent of voters ranking violence as their primary concern as the election approaches a tight run-off.