Global Shipping Plunges Through Bab Al Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Conflict and Rising Oil Prices

Ship traffic across the Bab Al Mandeb strait plummeted on Thursday after the Houthis seized the key port city of Mokha on Yemen’s west coast, while the number of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz also remained low following renewed attacks. Only six vessels crossed the Bab Al Mandeb as of 3.14pm UAE time, down from 30 on Wednesday, 26 on Tuesday, and 29 on Monday, according to preliminary data from Kpler. Of those six, five exited the Red Sea carrying grain, crude, coal, and fertiliser, while one entered.

Iran-backed Houthi militants further expanded their control over the Red Sea area and the Bab Al Mandeb shipping route after taking Mokha following days of fighting against pro-government forces. The Yemen-based group previously announced a “maritime embargo” against Saudi Arabia and has been attacking ships carrying Opec members' crude. The strait is critical for the export of crude from Saudi Arabia to Asian markets, prompting the Saudis to reroute tankers through the Mediterranean following a spate of Houthi attacks.

Meanwhile, only two ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, Kpler reported. Vessel transits across the strait fell to their lowest level for the month on Wednesday as the US and Iran traded attacks on ships. Only nine commodity vessels transited the channel, down from 12 on Tuesday and 20 on Monday, with most ships going dark by switching off transponders to avoid detection. Among the vessels exiting the Gulf on Wednesday were two very large crude carriers, each carrying about two million barrels of crude, alongside one fertiliser-laden vessel.

The latest data coincides with intensifying attacks on tankers in the Arabian Gulf by the US and Iran. US Central Command revealed on Wednesday that it had “destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers,” while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated it inflicted “extensive damage” to two US warships, eight oil tankers, and 10 other vessels.

This escalation has driven oil prices past $100 per barrel for the first time since July. Brent crude traded 2.55 per cent higher at $103.80 per barrel at 4:15pm UAE time on Thursday, while WTI rose nearly 3 per cent to $98.89 per barrel. The waterway previously transported more than 20 million barrels of oil per day before the war broke out in February, with over 100 ships crossing daily, whereas current estimates stand at around 10 million bpd.

“Over the past week, US forces struck more tankers in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz than in the previous four months combined,” said Valentin d'Hauthuille, Middle East Analyst at Acled. He noted that since September 1, US forces have attacked 10 tankers, compared to 12 vessels attacked sporadically over the preceding four months. The attacks were sparked by a new “tanker-for-tanker” policy devised by US President Donald Trump's administration to deter Iranian strikes on oil-carrying vessels.

According to the International Maritime Organisation's latest update on September 8, 73 confirmed vessel attacks have occurred since the conflict began, resulting in 21 seafarer deaths. Ana Subasic, trade risk analyst at Kpler, noted that 514 commercial vessels are currently stuck in the Arabian Gulf as of Thursday.