Energy Industry Leaders Gather in Bangkok as Global Markets Face Severe Disruption and Rising Prices

Sir Tony Blair understands the volatile intersection of energy, politics, and the Middle East. Having entered Downing Street in 1997 with oil priced under $20 a barrel and leaving a decade later with averages around $70-$75, he witnessed a nearly fourfold surge in energy costs across three consecutive election victories. Immediately upon his resignation, he assumed the role of the Quartet’s special envoy to the Middle East, a position he maintained until 2015. This background makes the former British prime minister a compelling figure at the Gastech Gala Dinner in Bangkok, where he joins discussions at a truly pivotal moment for the industry.

“This war will end immediately after our election,” stated President Donald Trump, linking the conclusion of the Iran conflict to the US midterms on November 3. This declaration coincided with Brent crude surpassing $100 a barrel for the first time in six weeks, while White House sources indicated that petrol prices are unlikely to drop before the vote. Meanwhile, Washington has intensified pressure, introducing a sanctions package targeting Iran’s aviation sector following Treasury actions designed to dismantle remaining revenue streams.

The guardians of the global energy sector convene in Bangkok at the epicenter of economic and social fallout driven by dramatic spikes in oil, gas, and fertiliser. Soaring gas prices have severely impacted regional economies, forcing Pakistan into a four-day working week, compelling Thailand to ration power and suspend fuel exports, and prompting China to ban domestic refiners from exporting diesel, petrol, and jet fuel.

Asian gas prices have climbed nearly 15 percent over the past month and have more than doubled within the year. Confronting a tight market with no immediate resolution in sight, industry leaders—including the heads of gas at ExxonMobil, Shell, Eni, Adnoc, and Chevron—face mounting pressure to address these challenges.

Twelve months prior in Milan, the atmosphere was defined by industry dominance. US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright dismissed net zero as a “colossal train wreck,” while Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum championed American liquefied natural gas (LNG) as the solution for Europe. Bangkok presents a starkly different environment. Sir Tony Blair offers a rare perspective as a politician who navigated these economic swings and subsequently managed their geopolitical aftermath. His Institute for Global Change asserted last year that short-term phase-outs of fossil fuels were “doomed to fail,” an assessment that now appears increasingly accurate. Key questions for him at Gastech include identifying a viable path toward resolution and understanding its ultimate impact on global markets.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, has characterized the crisis as a “major, major threat” to the global economy, whereas Opec’s Secretary General, Haitham Al Ghais, maintains it is a “one-off event.” Bangkok serves as the testing ground for these contrasting viewpoints against hard data.

Utilizing economist Milton Friedman’s concept of “long and variable lag,” the delayed reckoning of an ongoing war continues to unfold. European gas storage sits at a two-decade low, with Europe's primary natural gas pricing benchmark, TTF, surging over 130 percent this year. JPMorgan projects that global food inflation will climb from 2.8 percent to roughly 5 percent by early 2027 as the crisis works its way downstream.

The Strait of Hormuz, responsible for carrying nearly a fifth of the world’s LNG predominantly from Qatar and the UAE, became a primary headline when Iran closed it, causing Qatari exports to collapse by roughly 96 percent. This resulted in an estimated $24 billion in lost sales, with Ras Laffan repairs projected to cost up to $20 billion annually for five years. Although Saudi Arabia and the UAE have restored nearly 85 percent of prewar export levels, overall market confidence remains shaken, and the IEA does not anticipate a complete supply recovery before 2027.

With Iran and Oman negotiating toll structures for the strait, the long-standing assumption of free navigation is being actively challenged. This dynamic forces energy giants like Shell, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, and Adnoc to reassess supply vulnerabilities, logistics, and geographic exposure as emerging Asia absorbs the heavy costs of a conflict it did not initiate.