Restoring Regional Deterrence and Advancing Sustainable Peace: The Editor's Briefing

As the summer lull fades, daily life across much of the Gulf feels deceptively "normal". Yet news of occasional drone attacks and dramatic Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia in the past week serve as a sharp reminder that the normal of “no peace, no war” is unacceptable to all sides. Even with a nominal ceasefire in place, Tehran and its network of proxies continue targeting regional states and critical waterways, while the US regularly strikes back.

Amid low-level diplomatic efforts, officials are increasingly focused on ways to restore deterrence. While a short-term peace deal is essential to halt strikes and reopen international waterways, long-term deterrence will be what actually keeps the peace. Most US and Arab diplomats acknowledge that the Iranian regime, despite serious domestic troubles, is here to stay for now – and with the cheap drone technology and accessibility to AI, it retains the capacity to wreak havoc.

Listening to Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesman Majed Alansari speak in Abu Dhabi this week, I was struck by his emphasis on “restoring deterrence” as the primary challenge, and his warning that accepting the current status quo as a "new normal" is the greatest threat. Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE President, echoed this sentiment, noting that while diplomatic relations with Iran may be restored, "restoring trust is the mountain we must climb." In the absence of that trust, deterrence becomes all the more vital.

As events become more dramatic around the world, I wonder if we can bring back deterrence - and by extension restraint and decorum. If restoring deterrence represents diplomacy at its most difficult and defensive, events in Germany this week, meanwhile, showcased diplomacy at its most ambitious. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed undertook the first state visit by an Emirati leader to Germany, and elevated relations between the countries with agreements across sectors.

Ceremonial displays were backed by major economic deals - including a huge €40 billion investment package targeting advanced technology, energy and digital infrastructure. Yet, as Sheikh Mohamed posted on X, the visit was a reminder of “the importance of advancing sustainable peace in the region and around the world”. As the world marks 25 years since the September 11 attacks, prompting reflections on the fallout of "forever wars," asymmetrical proxy conflicts, and the erosion of international law, "sustainable peace" remains the bold ambition we should all demand.