Strategic Shifts in the Middle East: Can the Houthis Control the Red Sea?

Houthi forces have captured the entirety of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, advancing all the way to the critical Bab al-Mandeb shipping gateway amid a rapid offensive. After seizing the port city of Mocha, the Iran-backed group dealt a heavy blow to the Yemeni government, which is supported by neighboring Saudi Arabia. Analysts describe these victories as the most significant regional development since the US and Israel declared war on Iran in February.

The ongoing conflict in Yemen began in 2014 when Houthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa and the port city of Hodeidah, forcing the government to step aside. Saudi Arabia entered the war in 2015 to counter Iran's influence and restore the Yemeni government. Following a 2022 UN truce, a new and intense wave of fighting resumed recently as the Houthis targeted the Red Sea coast.

The complete control of the Bab al-Mandeb corridor threatens to worsen the global energy crisis. With Iran having blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline to transport oil to the western port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Although the kingdom increased the pipeline to full capacity, the Houthis' capture of the coast puts these critical oil exports at further risk.

Experts note that proxy control of the Bab al-Mandeb strengthens Iran's strategic position in its ongoing conflict with Washington, effectively giving Tehran control over multiple vital shipping lanes. Furthermore, the Houthi advances have increased pressure on Washington as surging energy prices impact the political landscape ahead of mid-term elections.

While questions remain regarding whether the Houthis can effectively sustain governance and a long-term blockade, analysts emphasize that merely projecting danger is often enough to deter shipping companies and insurance firms from entering the strait. Despite calls from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for US air strikes, President Donald Trump has thus far declined to intervene militarily.