Amid Regional Tensions and International Isolation, Israel Faces Deep Political Deadlock Ahead of Elections

As Israel concludes Rosh Hashanah, when Judaism teaches that God determines humanity’s fate for the coming year, many are praying for peace and calm after a long period of regional conflict. The country remains on high alert for an Iranian attack amid reports that Iran has started rebuilding nuclear and ballistic missile facilities. This tension coincides with unprecedented international isolation, most notably the decision by the UK and 11 other western nations to impose sanctions on illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Internally, Israelis are also grappling with domestic strife as the October election polls approach. Parties recently submitted their final lists of candidates, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced a torrent of anger over reports that he ignored warnings about Hamas preparing for the attacks on October 7, 2023. Even within voting blocs, spats continue over tactics and egos, while fears mount that parties will use foul play to get ahead. A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 59 per cent of Jewish Israelis think there is a high likelihood of internal interference, and 72 per cent previously warned of a danger to the integrity of the elections.

Despite the turmoil, pollsters report a striking deadlock. Israeli pollster Dahlia Scheindlin noted that the Netanyahu and opposition blocs have remained remarkably stable, showing no statistically significant changes. Without a late surge or surprising coalition engineering, Israel faces the prospect of a Netanyahu caretaker government followed by potentially endless election cycles. Nevertheless, as the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, Mr Netanyahu retains a reputation for clinging to power, leading to speculation that he might seek a regional escalation or intervention from US President Donald Trump.

Experts suggest that even a dramatic regional escalation might not significantly alter polling trends. Hebrew University researcher Dr Ali Al Awar described the elections as a potential turning point for the Middle East and the Palestinian cause if Mr Netanyahu loses power, noting it could bring pressure for withdrawals from Gaza and southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Michael Hanna of the International Crisis Group remarked that while a loss for Mr Netanyahu could ease headaches for the US administration, the deeply institutionalised relationship between the two countries would ensure little overall change in Washington's stance.