Sweden's Centre-Left Opposition Takes Early Lead in General Election Exit Polls

Ballot envelopes are placed into a ballot box during early voting for Sweden's 2026 general election at Malmo Central Station in Malmo, Sweden by Johan Nilsson/EPA. Sweden’s centre-left opposition was projected to secure 51.3 percent of the vote, outpacing the right-wing bloc’s 46.8 percent, according to an exit poll released by public broadcaster SVT.

Voting in Sweden’s election officially concluded at 18:00 GMT on Sunday, and the official vote counting is currently under way. Early results are anticipated from the Swedish Election Authority within the coming hours. A separate election-day poll conducted by broadcaster TV4 also indicated a lead for the centre-left.

While Swedish exit polls frequently hint at the final outcome, they have not always proven completely accurate. In 2022, an exit poll similarly projected that Magdalena Andersson’s centre-left bloc would prevail, though the election was ultimately claimed by a right-wing coalition led by Ulf Kristersson, who serves as Sweden’s current prime minister.

Earlier in the campaign cycle, Sweden’s left-wing bloc appeared poised for a decisive victory over conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s four-party alliance, which features the nationalist Sweden Democrats. However, the race tightened considerably in the final weeks, turning what initially seemed like a predictable vote into a much closer contest.

Earlier in the year, polls indicated that the opposition bloc led by Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats held an advantage of approximately 10 percentage points. By the conclusion of the campaign, that lead had shrunk to just two to three points.

A potential victory for Magdalena Andersson would offer a welcome development for left-leaning political parties across Europe, where right-wing and far-right factions have recently made significant gains. Just last week, Alternative for Germany (AfD) captured 44 percent of the vote in a critical state election, bringing a far-right party within touching distance of state-level power in Germany for the first time since World War II.

Conversely, if the early exit polls prove incorrect, the election could propel the far-right Sweden Democrats into government for the very first time. The party, which has roots in the neo-Nazi movement, secured 20.5 percent of the vote during the 2022 election, establishing itself as the largest party on the right and providing essential parliamentary backing for Ulf Kristersson’s minority government. Until now, the Sweden Democrats have remained outside the ruling administration.

In April, Ulf Kristersson announced that his conservative Moderates would be open to incorporating the party into a governing coalition should the right secure a majority, which would award the Sweden Democrats cabinet positions for the first time. Nevertheless, if the exit-poll lead holds, the likelihood of the Sweden Democrats entering government is significantly reduced.