Navigating the New Era of Geopolitical Disorder in the Global Energy Sector

“War is too important to be left to the generals,” said Georges Clemenceau, France’s victorious prime minister in the First World War. As energy executives keenly anticipate Adipec in Abu Dhabi at the start of November, the industry must confront a new era of disorder by drawing on leaders from across global society, including politics, government, science, media, and the military.

The modern energy system matured in a post-1945 and post-1989 world structured around the UN, the Bretton Woods financial arrangements, the World Trade Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, the Seven Sisters, major western oil corporations, and Opec. During this time, the US acted as a predictable hegemon, and trade and capital mobility surged. However, this established framework has faced an accelerating series of disruptions, marked by the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks in New York, along with the crises of 2003, 2008, 2020, 2022, and now 2026.

Free trade is increasingly fragmented due to Brexit, sanctions, tariffs, corruption, and policies of strategic autonomy reminiscent of the 1930s. A modern militaristic mercantilism now seeks direct control over critical chokepoints and natural resources. Incidents include Iran attacking ships in the Gulf, the Houthis operating in the Red Sea, and the US enforcing a counter-blockade against Iranian oil exports. Simultaneously, Ukraine and Russia contend over Black Sea shipping, powers watch each other in the Arctic, Beijing targets critical minerals, and the US restricts advanced computing.

Addressing these complexities, Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, recently highlighted an “increasingly complex global energy landscape” while chairing a meeting of Adnoc’s executive committee. He directed the national oil and gas giant to enhance its integration of production, trading, and logistics to maintain energy security. Meanwhile, other nations pursue self-sufficiency, often weaponizing physical and virtual flows, which creates economic tollbooths and vicious cycles of hostility.

While renewable energy offers alternatives to hydrocarbons, it introduces new dependencies. The US has grown increasingly unpredictable and risk-taking through its energy independence, while China has become a dominant provider of new energy technologies without assuming a global collective role. Complicated further by the policies of Brussels, Berlin, India, Russia, and middle powers, freedom of navigation remains under severe threat, and international climate collaboration has largely stalled despite worsening global weather impacts.

Nevertheless, the energy industry continues to drive remarkable low-carbon solutions, particularly through China’s industrial capacity. Yet, broader global cooperation failures persist in maritime security, pandemic preparedness, and AI regulation, where geoeconomic competition runs high.

To navigate this void, energy companies are forging strategic partnerships. The UAE’s Masdar agreed to work with Germany on offshore wind and batteries, while Adnoc explores collaborations with emerging markets such as Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and Thailand’s PTT. Ultimately, a multifarious dialogue in the UAE capital may help define the leadership required to secure the future of global energy.